Mapping Russia’s Global Influence

A Cluster Analysis of Strategic Goals and Instruments of Influence in the Post-Crimea Era (2014-2021)

Autor

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.22.2025.96.2.05

Słowa kluczowe:

Russian foreign policy, strategic goals, regions of influence, cluster analysis

Abstrakt

The article presents a comprehensive analysis of Russia’s strategic goals and instruments of influence in foreign policy between 2014 and 2021 for implementing global ambitions. Using cluster and index analysis methods, the study identifies eleven regions of influence (ROIs) and four main clusters: Border Security (BS), Economic-Historical Ties (EHT), Eastern Markets (EM), and Dialogue with North America (DNA). The analysis showed that Russia’s activity in certain regions was differentiated and adapted to their strategic importance. The highest activity indicators were recorded in Central and Southern Africa, the Western Balkans, and the Baltic States, where Russia used various instruments of influence—from political to economic to informational. The study confirms that Russian foreign policy after 2014 was aimed at undermining Western dominance and building a multipolar world. The findings reveal Russia’s systematic and differentiated approach to achieving strategic goals in different regions of the world and contribute to a better understanding of its role in shaping the contemporary international order.

Pobrania

Statystyki pobrań niedostępne.

Biogramy autorów

  • Grzegorz Ptaszek - Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza im. Stanisława Staszica w Krakowie

    Works as a professor in the Department of Information Technology and Media at the University of Krakow (Poland). His research focuses on digital disinformation, strategic communication, media analysis, datafication, and the use of computational methods in the social sciences.

  • Bohdan Yuskiv - Rivne State University of Humanities

    Is a professor of political sciences at the Department of Economics and Business Management of Rivne State Humanities University (Ukraine). His research interests include media analysis, information warfare, strategic communication, big data, data/text mining and data visualization.

  • Piotr Bajor - Uniwersytet Jagielloński

    Works as an associate professor at the Institute of Political Science and International Relations at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow (Poland). His research interests include foreign policy and international security, diplomacy, socio-political transformation of the post-Soviet area, soft power, institutionalization of global and regional cooperation, and the activities of international organizations. Author of numerous articles and monographs, as well as a leader and member of research teams implementing research projects in the field of international cooperation. Fellow of many foreign research centers, as well as publicist and commentator on current events and processes in international relations.

Bibliografia

Allison G., “The New Spheres of Influence: Sharing the Globe with Other Great Powers,” Foreign Affairs, 10 February 2020, at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/unitedstates/2020-02-10/new-spheres-influence.
View in Google Scholar

Андрієнко В., Статистичні індекси в економічних дослідженнях, Київ [Andrієnko V., Statističnі іndeksi v ekonomіčnih doslіdžennâh, Kiїv] 2004.
View in Google Scholar

Batinti A., Kopstein J., “Is Russia Really a Normal Country? A Numerical Taxonomy of Russia in Comparative Perspective,” Constitutional Political Economy, vol. 33, no. 2 (2022), pp. 217-232, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-021-09344-8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-021-09344-8
View in Google Scholar

Beckley M., Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower, Ithaca 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7591/9781501724794
View in Google Scholar

Berls R.E., “Strengthening Russia’s Influence in International Affairs, Part II: Russia and Its Neighbors: A Sphere of Influence or a Declining Relationship?,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, 13 July 2021, at https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/strengthening-russias-influence-ininternational-affairs-part-ii-russia-and-its-neighbors-a-sphere-of-influence-or-a-decliningrelationship/.
View in Google Scholar

Bilous T., “How the Spheres of Influence Policy Amplifies Reaction,” International View Point, 11 August 2022, at https://internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article7774. DOI: https://doi.org/10.63478/8CUTEUG4
View in Google Scholar

Bull H., The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics, New York 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-230-39340-0_2
View in Google Scholar

Cerulli R., Russian Influence in the Middle East: Economics, Energy, and Soft Power, 2019, at https://www.americansecurityproject.org/perspective-russian-influence-in-the-middle-east/.
View in Google Scholar

Connolly R., Sendstad C., Russia’s Role as an Arms Exporter: The Strategic and Economic Importance of Arms Exports for Russia, London 2017, at https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/publications/research/2017-03-20-russia-arms-exporter-connolly-sendstad.pdf.
View in Google Scholar

D’Anieri P., Ukraine and Russia: From Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War, Cambridge 2023, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009315555. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009315555
View in Google Scholar

Dahl R.A., Stinebrickner B., Modern Political Analysis, Englewood Cliffs 2003.
View in Google Scholar

Donaldson R.H., Nadkarni V., The Foreign Policy of Russia: Changing Systems, Enduring Interests, New York 2019, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429449666. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429449666
View in Google Scholar

Dyner A.M., “The Russian Federation’s New Foreign Policy Concept,” PISM Bulletin, no. 1
View in Google Scholar

(2017), at https://pism.pl/publications/The_Russian_Federation_s_New_Foreign_Policy_Concept.
View in Google Scholar

Etzioni A., “Spheres of Influence: A Reconceptualization,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, vol. 39, no. 2 (2015), pp. 117-132.
View in Google Scholar

Flockhart T., Korosteleva E.A., “War in Ukraine: Putin and the Multi-Order World,” Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 43, no. 3 (2022), pp. 466-481, https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2022.2091591. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2022.2091591
View in Google Scholar

Fridman O., “Defining Foreign Influence and Interference,” INNS, 2024, at https://www.inss.org.il/publication/influence-and-interference/.
View in Google Scholar

Garcia Z., Modlin K.D., “Sino-Russian Relations and the War in Ukraine,” Parameters, vol. 52, no. 3 (2022), pp. 21-36, https://doi.org/10.55540/0031-1723.3165. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55540/0031-1723.3165
View in Google Scholar

De Haas M., Russia’s Foreign Security Policy in the 21st Century: Putin, Medvedev and Beyond, London 2010, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203854402. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203854402
View in Google Scholar

Hast S., Spheres of Influence in International Relations: History, Theory and Politics, Burlington 2014.
View in Google Scholar

Holder J., Leatherby L., Troianovski A., Cai W., “The West Tried to Isolate Russia: It Didn’t Work,” The New York Times, 23 February 2023, at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/23/world/russia-ukraine-geopolitics.html.
View in Google Scholar

Jackson V., “Understanding Spheres of Influence in International Politics,” European Journal of International Security, vol. 5, no. 3 (2020), pp. 255-273, https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2019.21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2019.21
View in Google Scholar

Kanet R.E., “Russian Strategic Culture and Renewed Conflict with the West,” in R.E. Kanet, D. Moulioukova (eds), Russia and the World in the Putin Era: From Theory to Reality in Russian Global Strategy, London 2021, pp. 34-60, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003190417-2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003190417-2
View in Google Scholar

Karlsen G.H., “Divide and Rule: Ten Lessons about Russian Political Influence Activities in Europe,” Palgrave Communications, vol. 5, no. 1 (2019), pp. 1-14, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0227-8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0227-8
View in Google Scholar

Keal P., “Contemporary Understanding about Spheres of Influence,” Review of International Studies, vol. 9, no. 3 (1983), pp. 155-172, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0260210500115876. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0260210500115876
View in Google Scholar

Kliem F., “CO22009 | Russia, NATO, and Ukraine: The Return of Spheres of Influence,” RSIS, 7 February 2022, at https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/cms/russia-nato-andukraine-the-return-of-spheres-of-influence/.
View in Google Scholar

Krauthammer C., “The Unipolar Moment Revisited,” The National Interest, vol. 70 (2003), pp. 5-18.
View in Google Scholar

Kuzio T., “The Origins of Peace, Non-Violence, and Conflict in Ukraine,” in A. Pikulicka‑Wilczewska, R. Sakwa (eds), Ukraine and Russia: People, Politics, Propaganda, and Perspectives, Bristol 2016, pp. 103-116, at http://www.e-ir.info/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Ukraine-and-Russia-E-IR-2016.pdf.
View in Google Scholar

Larson D.W., Shevchenko A., “Status Seekers: Chinese and Russian Responses to U.S. Primacy,” International Security, vol. 34, no. 4 (2010), pp. 63-95, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.2010.34.4.63. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.2010.34.4.63
View in Google Scholar

Legvold R., Return to Cold War, Cambridge–Malden 2016.
View in Google Scholar

Leonard M., Popescu N., A Power Audit of EU-Russia Relations, London 2007, at https://ecfr.eu/wp-content/uploads/ECFR-02_A_POWER_AUDIT_OF_EU-RUSSIA_RELATIONS.pdf.
View in Google Scholar

Lewis D., “The Role of Ideology in Russian Foreign Policy,” in J.L. Maynard, M.L. Haas (eds), The Routledge Handbook of Ideology and International Relations, London 2022, pp. 374-390. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003026754-26
View in Google Scholar

Liu F., “Russia’s Foreign Policy over the Past Three Decades: Change and Continuity,” Chinese Journal of Slavic Studies, vol. 2, no. 1 (2022), pp. 86-99, https://doi.org/10.1515/cjss-2022-0004. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/cjss-2022-0004
View in Google Scholar

Lo B., Russia and the New World Disorder, London–Washington, D.C. 2015.
View in Google Scholar

Lo B., The Sino-Russian Partnership: Assumptions, Myths and Realities, Paris 2023.
View in Google Scholar

Loftus S., “Atlanticism in an Age of Great Power Competition: Is Russia Achieving Its Goals?,” in R.E. Kanet, D. Moulioukova (eds), Russia and the World in the Putin Era: From Theory to Reality in Russian Global Strategy, London 2021, pp. 94-114, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003190417-4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003190417-4
View in Google Scholar

Makarychev A., “Russia in a Multipolar World: Role Identities and ‘Cognitive Maps,’” Revista CIDOB d’afers Internacionals, vol. 96 (2011), pp. 25-43, at https://www.cidob.org/en/articulos/revista_cidob_d_afers_internacionals/96/russia_in_a_multipolar_world_role_identities_and_cognitive_maps.
View in Google Scholar

Marušiak J., “Russia and the Visegrad Group – More Than a Foreign Policy Issue,” International Issues & Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs, vol. 24, no. 1-2 (2015), pp. 28-46.
View in Google Scholar

McFaul M., Sestanovich S., Mearsheimer J.J., “Faulty Powers: Who Started the Ukraine Crisis?,” Foreign Affairs, 17 October 2014, at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/easterneurope-caucasus/2014-10-17/faulty-powers.
View in Google Scholar

Mearsheimer J.J., “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin,” Foreign Affairs, vol. 93, no. 5 (2014), pp. 77-89.
View in Google Scholar

Meierding E., Sigman R., “Understanding the Mechanisms of International Influence in an Era of Great Power Competition,” Journal of Global Security Studies, vol. 6, no. 4 (2021), pp. 1-18. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogab011
View in Google Scholar

Menon R., Ruger W., “NATO, U.S. Grand Strategy and the Russian Response,” in R.E. Kanet, D. Moulioukova (eds), Russia and the World in the Putin Era: From Theory to Reality in Russian Global Strategy, London 2021, pp. 179-213, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003190417-7. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003190417-7
View in Google Scholar

Michta A.A., “What Russia Wants from a Ukraine Crisis: A Sphere of Influence in Eastern Europe,” 1945, 13 December 2021, at https://www.19fortyfive.com/2021/12/what-russia-wants-from-a-ukraine-crisis-a-sphere-of-influence-in-eastern-europe/.
View in Google Scholar

Moulioukova D., Kanet R.E., “The Battle of Ontological Narratives: Russia and the Annexation of Crimea,” in R.E. Kanet, D. Moulioukova (eds), Russia and the World in the Putin Era: From Theory to Reality in Russian Global Strategy, London 2021, pp. 115-139, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003190417-5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003190417-5
View in Google Scholar

Neumann I.B., “Russia as a Great Power, 1815-2007,” Journal of International Relations and Development, vol. 11, no. 2 (2008), pp. 128-151, https://doi.org/10.1057/jird.2008.7. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/jird.2008.7
View in Google Scholar

Newton J., “Shortcut to Great Power: Russia in Pursuit of Multipolarity,” in J. Newton, W. Tompson (eds), Institutions, Ideas and Leadership in Russian Politics, London 2010, pp. 88-115, https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230282940_5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230282940_5
View in Google Scholar

Nilsson R., Revanchism – Russians – Justice: Foreign Policy Perceptions in Russia, Copenhagen 2014, at https://cms.polsci.ku.dk/english/publications/revanchismrussians/.
View in Google Scholar

Nye J., Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics, New York 2002.
View in Google Scholar

Nye J., “Soft Power and Public Diplomacy Revisited,” The Hague Journal of Diplomacy, vol. 14, no. 1-2 (2019), pp. 7-20, https://doi.org/10.1163/1871191X-14101013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1163/1871191X-14101013
View in Google Scholar

Nygren B., The Rebuilding of Greater Russia: Putin’s Foreign Policy towards the CIS Countries, London 2008, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203939901. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203939901
View in Google Scholar

Obama B., “Remarks by President Obama at 25th Anniversary of Freedom Day – Warsaw, Poland,” The White House, 4 June 2014, at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2014/06/04/remarks-president-obama-25th-anniversary-freedom-daywarsaw-poland.
View in Google Scholar

Petito F., “Dialogue of Civilizations in a Multipolar World: Toward a Multicivilizational‑Multiplex World Order,” International Studies Review, vol. 18, no. 1 (2016), pp. 78-91, https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viv030. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viv030
View in Google Scholar

Ramani S., “The Ukraine War and Russia’s Africa Strategy,” in S. Ramani, Russia in Africa: Resurgent Great Power or Bellicose Pretender?, Oxford 2023, pp. 293-320, https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197744598.003.0011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197744598.003.0011
View in Google Scholar

Reid E.A., “Third Rome or Potemkin Village: Analyzing the Extent of Russia’s Power in Serbia, 2012-2019,” Nationalities Papers, vol. 49, no. 4 (2021), pp. 728-737, https://doi.org/10.1017/nps.2020.62 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/nps.2020.62
View in Google Scholar

Roberts K., “Understanding Putin: The Politics of Identity and Geopolitics in Russian Foreign Policy Discourse,” International Journal: Canada’s Journal of Global Policy Analysis, vol. 72, no. 1 (2017), pp. 28-55, https://doi.org/10.1177/0020702017692609. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0020702017692609
View in Google Scholar

Sakwa R., Russia against the Rest: The Post-Cold War Crisis of World Order, Cambridge 2017, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316675885. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316675885
View in Google Scholar

Sakwa R., Russian Politics and Society, London 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003053569
View in Google Scholar

Sankey E.R., “Reconsidering Spheres of Influence,” Survival, vol. 62, no. 2 (2020), pp. 37-47, https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2020.1739947. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2020.1739947
View in Google Scholar

Secrieru S., Popescu N. (eds), Russia’s Return to the Middle East: Building Sandcastles?, Paris 2018.
View in Google Scholar

Smith H., “Domestic Influences on Russian Foreign Policy: Status, Interests and Ressentiment,” in M.R. Freire, R.E. Kanet (eds), Russia and Its Near Neighbours, London 2012, pp. 39-62, https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230390164_3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230390164_3
View in Google Scholar

Snetkov A., Russia’s Security Policy under Putin: A Critical Perspective, London 2015. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203559390
View in Google Scholar

Stent A.E., “Restoration and Revolution in Putin’s Foreign Policy,” Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 60, no. 6 (2008), pp. 1089-1106, https://doi.org/10.1080/09668130802161264. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668130802161264
View in Google Scholar

Suslov M., “‘Russian World’ Concept: Post-Soviet Geopolitical Ideology and the Logic of ‘Spheres of Influence,’” Geopolitics, vol. 23, no. 2 (2018), pp. 330-353, https://doi.org/10.080/14650045.2017.1407921. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2017.1407921
View in Google Scholar

Treisman D., “Why Putin Took Crimea: The Gambler in the Kremlin,” Foreign Affairs, 18 April 2016, at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2016-04-18/why-russian-president-putin-took-crimea-from-ukraine.
View in Google Scholar

Tsygankov A.P., Russian Realism: Defending ‘Derzhava’ in International Relations, London 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003247647
View in Google Scholar

Tsygankov A.P., Russia’s Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity, Lanham 2019.
View in Google Scholar

Turner S., “Russia, China, and a Multipolar World Order: The Danger in the Undefined,” Asian Perspective, vol. 33, no. 1 (2009), pp. 159-184, https://doi.org/10.1353/apr.2009.0029. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/apr.2009.0029
View in Google Scholar

Unver H.A., “Computational International Relations: What Can Programming, Coding, and Internet Research Do for the Discipline?,” arXiv, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1803.00105.
View in Google Scholar

Wagner J.-P. NE, “The Effectiveness of Soft & Hard Power in Contemporary International Relations,” E-International Relations, 14 May 2014, at https://www.e-ir.info/2014/05/14/the-effectiveness-of-soft-hard-power-in-contemporary-international-relations/.
View in Google Scholar

Walker Ch., Ludwig J., Sharp Power: Rising Authoritarian Influence, Washington, D.C. 2017.
View in Google Scholar

Wilson E.J., “Hard Power, Soft Power, Smart Power,” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences, vol. 616 (2008), pp. 110-124, https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716207312618. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716207312618
View in Google Scholar

Yuskiv B., Karpchuk N., “Linguistic Landscape and the Monolithic Nature of the EU,” Ankara Avrupa Çalışmaları Dergisi, vol. 19, no. 2 (2021), pp. 641-676, https://doi.org/10.32450/aacd.887200. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32450/aacd.887200
View in Google Scholar

Pobrania

Opublikowane

26-06-2025

Numer

Tom 22 Nr 2(96/2) (2025)

Dział

Artykuły

Licencja

Creative Commons License

Utwór dostępny jest na licencji Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa – Użycie niekomercyjne – Bez utworów zależnych 4.0 Międzynarodowe.

Jak cytować

„Mapping Russia’s Global Influence: A Cluster Analysis of Strategic Goals and Instruments of Influence in the Post-Crimea Era (2014-2021)”. 2025. Politeja 22 (2(96/2): 99-138. https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.22.2025.96.2.05.