Prospects for the Sustainable Political Stability of the Russian Federation in the Third Decade of the 21st Century in View of the Synegretic Paradigm

Abstrakt

The paper is an attempt to estimate the influence of synergy in the long-term parameter of order in the nature of political processes in the Russian Federation in the third decade of the 21st century. Two interpretations of this synergetic parameter are proposed – one is based on I. Prigogine’s idea that every dissipative system experiences periods of deterministic and non-deterministic chaos. It incorporates a combination of time and the population of the state. The other is based on the modified ‘structurally-demographic’ approach of A. Korotayev and J. Goldstone. We consider the rate of annual growth in the number of urban young people as such a parameter is proposed. We predict that the Russian Federation will enter into the next period of indeterministic chaos due to the synergetic parameter of order in the next 33-40 years from the last point of bifurcation in 1991. Thus, we forecast the imminent onset of the next period of non-deterministic chaos in the Russian Federation in the second half of the third decade of the 21st century. An influence of several factors on the accuracy of the prognosis of political instability is assessed. It is stated that the probability of political instability in the Russian Federation in the years 2025-2030 caused by synergetic and structuraldemographic parameters of order will decreas under the additional influence of open borders and the high demand for jobs in the military services.