Patterns of Libya’s instability in the aftermath of the collapse of Gaddafi’s regime

Abstract

Four years after the end of its uprising against the Gaddafi regime, Libya remains in chaos. It is worth noting that for the third time since their independence in 1951, the Libyans’ attempts to create a modern and powerful state seem to be ‘wishful thinking’. The first two failed attempts – in 1951 and 1969 – were essentially local affairs without significant consequences beyond the country’s borders. The ongoing turmoil which followed in the wake of the Arab Spring in 2011 is leading to serious regional and international destabilization. This paper discusses the main factors of the instability in post‑Gaddafi Libya. According to the authors’ analysis, there are the following main obstacles in the process of transition toward democracy and peace: two competing governments, multiplicity of militias and combat groups operating in Libya, jihadism rising in power as well as the regional and ethnic claims for recognition and autonomy. The last part of this paper is devoted to potential scenarios for the future of Libya.