Russo-Ukrainian War’s Impact on Space Security – The Western Perspective

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.21.2024.92.11

Keywords:

international security, space security, war in Ukraine, European security

Abstract

In this paper, the impact of the democratisation of space on space security is investigated using the example of the war in Ukraine, with particular attention to the transatlantic community’s security concerns. It is argued that the growing reliance on space systems for security-related purposes by an increasing number of international actors has significant potential to impact the dynamics of international relations, particularly in a regional dimension. This process naturally accelerates the development of counterspace measures designed to negate spacederived, security-related capabilities. Consequently, increasing the resilience of current and future space systems – including commercial ones – is crucial if Western nations are to maintain their edge in space applications.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

  • Marek Czajkowski, Jagiellonian University

    Political sciences professor at the Jagiellonian University in Kraków. Currently, his main area of interest is space security, examined from the perspective of political science – particularly international security. The most recent articles available online include: Anti-Satellite Weapons: A Political Dimension (2021), Sino-American Rivalry in Space – Selected Strategic and Political Issues (2021) and Space-Based Systems and Counterspace Warfare – a chapter in the Routledge Handbook of the Future Warfare (2024).

References

|2021 Annual Report, Space Foundation 2021, at https://www.spacefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/SpaceFoundation_2021-Annual-Report_Final-1.pdf.
View in Google Scholar

Adamowski J., “Poland Buys Two Spy Satellites from Airbus,” Defense News, 28 December 2022, at https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/12/28/poland-buys-two-spy-satellites-from-airbus/.
View in Google Scholar

Albon C., “Space Development Agency Again Delays Inaugural Satellite Launch,” C4ISRNet, 12 December 2022, at https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/space/2022/12/12/space-development-agency-again-delays-inaugural-satellite-launch/.
View in Google Scholar

Albon C., “SpaceX’s Shotwell Says Ukraine ‘Weaponized’ Starlink Network,” Defense News, 8 February 2023, at https://www.defensenews.com/battlefield-tech/space/2023/02/08/spacexs-shotwell-says-ukraine-weaponized-starlink-network/?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dfn-space.
View in Google Scholar

“Assured PNT for Defense Security and Critical Applications,” Septentrio, 2023, at https://www.septentrio.com/en/applications/assuredpnt.
View in Google Scholar

Baiocchi D., Wessler IV W., “The Democratization of Space: New Actors Need New Rules,” Foreign Affairs, 20 April 2015, at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/space/2015-04-20/democratization-space.
View in Google Scholar

Bajak F., “Musk Deputy’s Words on Starlink ‘Weaponization’ Vex Ukraine,” AP News, 9 February 2023, at https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-elon-musk-spacex-technologybusiness-c79c81ff4e6a09f4a185e627dad858fa.
View in Google Scholar

Baruch D.T., “Early Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War as a Space Conflict,” Atlantic Council, 30 August 2022, at https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/airpower-after-ukraine/early-lessons-from-the-russia-ukraine-war-as-a-space-conflict/.
View in Google Scholar

Beale J., “Space, the Unseen Frontier in the War in Ukraine,” BBC, 6 October 2022, at https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63109532.
View in Google Scholar

Bingen K., Johnson K., Young M., Space Threat Assessment 2023: A Report of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project, Washington 2023, at https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2023-04/230414_Bingen_Space_Assessment.pdf?VersionId=oMsUS8MupLbZi3BISPrqPCKd5jDejZnJ.
View in Google Scholar

Busch C., Slous L., “Germany’s Reluctant Approach to Space Security Policy,” War on the Rocks, 26 April 2023, at https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/germanys-reluctant-approach-to-space-security-policy/.
View in Google Scholar

Collier K., “Starlink Internet Becomes a Lifeline for Ukrainians,” NBC News, 19 April 2022, at https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/elon-musks-starlink-internet-becomes-lifelineukrainians-rcna25360.
View in Google Scholar

Cremins T., “How to Maximise the Benefits of a New Space Age,” World Economic Forum, 18 January 2015, at https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/01/how-to-maximise-the-benefits-of-a-new-space-age/.
View in Google Scholar

Czajkowski M., “Anti-Satellite Weapons: A Political Dimension,” Safety & Defense, vol. 7, no. 1 (2021), pp. 106-115, https://doi.org/10.37105/sd.129.
View in Google Scholar

Czajkowski M., “The European Military Space Capabilities – A Strategic Assessment,” Analiza KBN, vol. 4, no. 120 (2023), pp. 1-9, at https://zbn.inp.uj.edu.pl/pl_PL/analizy/-/journal_content/56_INSTANCE_L0OIGPRBo7bv/92718966/153319366.
View in Google Scholar

Czajkowski M., “The Russian Satellite Reconnaissance Capabilities – Political and Strategic Assessment,” Analiza KBN, vol. 13, no. 108 (2022), pp. 1-7, at https://zbn.inp.uj.edu.pl/documents/92718966/141790394/Analiza108-Czajkowski/d33a6b64-6cb0-4c75-9408-cf48c79855e1.
View in Google Scholar

Czajkowski M., “Space Security and the War in Ukraine – A Preliminary Assessment,” Analiza KBN, vol. 1, no. 116 (2023), pp. 1-6, at https://zbn.inp.uj.edu.pl/documents/92718966/141790394/Czajkowski+M.+-+A116+-+A/9614c7cc-7de3-420b-8b5f-303a7db55da3.
View in Google Scholar

Directive (EU) 2022/2557 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 December 2022 on the Resilience of Critical Entities and Repealing Council, Official Journal of the European Union, 27.12.2022, L 333/164 at https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/PE-51-2022-INIT/en/pdf.
View in Google Scholar

Douglas Aircraft Company, Inc., Preliminary Design of an Experimental World-Circling Spaceship, Report no. SM-11827, 2 May 1946.
View in Google Scholar

Erwin S., “Analyst: U.S. Military Space Budget Likely to Get Another Boost in 2024,” Space News, 16 February 2023, at https://spacenews.com/the-biden-administration-in-itsbudget-proposal-for-fiscal-year-2024-is-likely-to-seek-a-significant-increase-for-the-u-sspace-force/.
View in Google Scholar

Erwin S., “As Russia Prepared to Invade, U.S. Opened Commercial Imagery Pipeline to Ukraine,”
View in Google Scholar

Space News, 6 April 2022, at https://spacenews.com/as-russia-prepared-to-invade-u-sgovernment-and-satellite-imagery-suppliers-teamed-up-to-help-ukraine/.
View in Google Scholar

Erwin S., “DoD Weighing Options to Create ‘Commercial Space Reserve’,” Space News, 26 April 2023, at https://spacenews.com/dod-weighing-options-to-create-commercial-space-reserve/.
View in Google Scholar

Erwin S., “Space Development Agency Issues Draft Solicitation for 100 Satellites,” Space News, 12 May 2023, at https://spacenews.com/space-development-agency-issues-draft-solicitationfor-100-satellites/.
View in Google Scholar

Erwin S., “Space Force to Change how it Buys National Security Launches,” Space News, 16 February 2023, at https://spacenews.com/the-u-s-space-force-on-feb-16-released-itsprocurement-strategy-for-the-next-national-security-launch-services-contracts-expectedto-be-awarded-in-2024/.
View in Google Scholar

Harrison T., Cooper Z., Johnson K., Roberts T.G., Escalation and Deterrence in the Second Space Age: A Project Report by the CSIS Aerospace Security Project, Lanham– Boulder–New York–Lodon 2017, at https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/171109_Harrison_EscalationDeterrenceSecondSpaceAge.pdf.
View in Google Scholar

“How the War in Ukraine is Affecting Space Activities: New Challenges and Opportunities,” OECD, 15 November 2022, at https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/ab27ba94-en.pdf ?expires=1682855245&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=1CEF0ED48C98E76B32EF8678B0FF6DA0.
View in Google Scholar

Höyhtyä M., Uusipaavalniemi S., The Space Domain and the Russo-Ukrainian War: Actors, Tools, and Impact, Hybrid CoE Working Paper, no. 21 ( January 2023), at https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/20230109-Hybrid-CoE-Working-Paper-21-Space-and-the-Ukraine-war-WEB.pdf.
View in Google Scholar

Joint Communication to the European Parliament and the Council: European Union Space Strategy for Security and Defence, European Commission, Brussels, 10.3.2023, JOIN(2023) 9 final, at https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52023JC0009.
View in Google Scholar

Kessler D.J., Cour-Palais B.G., “Collision Frequency of Artificial Satellites: The Creation of a Debris Belt,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol. 83, no. A6 (1978), pp. 2637-2646, https://doi.org/10.1029/JA083iA06p02637. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/JA083iA06p02637
View in Google Scholar

Kim D., “The «Democratization of Space» and the Increasing Effects of Commercial Satellite Imagery on Foreign Policy,” New Perspectives in Foreign Policy, no. 18 (2019), pp. 35-37.
View in Google Scholar

Kim J.Y. U.S. Export Controls on GPS/GNSS Equipment, Presentation to National Space-Based PNT Advisory Board Toughen Working Group. 18 March 2022, at https://www.space.
View in Google Scholar

commerce.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022-03-US-export-controls-GPS-GNSS-equipment.pdf.
View in Google Scholar

Krebs G.D. “ICEYE X4, …, X38,” Gunter’s Space Page, 2023, at https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/iceye-x4.htm.
View in Google Scholar

Krebs G.D., “Helios 2A, 2B,” Gunther’s Space Page, 14 January 2023, at https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/helios-2a.htm.
View in Google Scholar

Laurila P., “New Benchmark in Imaging from SAR Microsatellites: ICEYE Presents 25 cm Azimuth Resolution,” ICEYE, 2 April 2020, at https://www.iceye.com/blog/new-benchmarkin-imaging-from-sar-microsatellites-iceye-presents-25-cm-azimuth-resolution.
View in Google Scholar

Marquardt A., Bertrand N., Cohen Z., “Russia’s Jamming of US-Provided Rocket Systems Complicates Ukraine’s War Effort,” CNN Politics, 6 May 2023, at https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html.
View in Google Scholar

McDowell J., “Starlink Statistics,” Jonathan’s Space Pages, 17 May 2023, at https://planet4589.org/space/con/star/stats.html.
View in Google Scholar

NATO 2022 Strategic Concept: Adopted by Heads of State and Government at the NATO Summit in Madrid 29 June 2022, NATO 2022, at https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/290622-strategic-concept.pdf.
View in Google Scholar

Nizokami K., “Russia Tried to Hold Ukraine’s Internet Hostage, then SpaceX Stepped in,” Popular Mechanics, 22 April 2022, at https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a39788022/spacex-quickly-countered-a-russian-threat-in-ukraine/.
View in Google Scholar

“Our Constellation: Soaring Through Space and Time,” Planet Labs, at https://www.planet.com/our-constellations/.
View in Google Scholar

Penent G., Schlumberger G., “How the War in Ukraine is Changing the Space Game,” Notes de l’ifri, Ifri, February 2023, at https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/penent_schlumberger_ukraine-space-game_2023.pdf.
View in Google Scholar

Poirier C., ESPI Short Report 1: The War in Ukraine from a Space Cybersecurity Perspective, European Space Policy Institute, October 2022, at https://www.espi.or.at/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/ESPI-Short-1-Final-Report.pdf.
View in Google Scholar

“Poland Funded More than Half of Starlink Terminals in Ukraine: Report,” Polskie Radio, 18 October 2022, at https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7789/artykul/3054835,poland-funded-more-than-half-of-starlink-terminals-in-ukraine-report.
View in Google Scholar

Rai A., “Wrecked Russian Fighter Planes Found with Rudimentary GPS Receivers ‘Taped to Dashboards’,” The Independent, 11 May 2022, at https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-fighter-jets-gps-dashboard-uk-b2076376.html.
View in Google Scholar

Raymond J.W., “Foreword,” in K. Bingen, K. Johnson, M. Young (eds), Space Threat Assessment 2023: A Report of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project, Washington 2023, at https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2023-04/230414_Bingen_Space_Assessment.pdf?VersionId=oMsUS8MupLbZi3BISPrqPCKd5jDejZnJ.
View in Google Scholar

Report to the Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization, United States Congress, 11 January 2001, at https://aerospace.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/RumsfeldCommission.pdf.
View in Google Scholar

Seyler M., “Officials Push Back on Report US Intel Helping Ukraine Target Russian Generals,” ABC News, 6 May 2022, at https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/officials-push-back-report-us-intel-helping-ukraine/story?id=84518393.
View in Google Scholar

Suess J., “Ukraine: The First Commercial Space War?,” Royal United Services Institute, 22 December 2022, at https://rusi.org/podcasts/war-in-space/episode-24-ukraine-first-commercialspace-war.
View in Google Scholar

“Ukraine Already Receives 42,000 Starlink Terminals,” Ukrinform, 27 April 2023, at https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3701465-ukraine-already-receives-42000-starlinkterminals.html.
View in Google Scholar

“The War in Ukraine and the European Space Sector,” European Space Policy Institute Executive Brief, no. 57, 5 May 2023, at https://www.espi.or.at/briefs/the-war-in-ukraine-and-the-european-space-sector/.
View in Google Scholar

Weeden B., Samson V., “Global Counterspace Capabilities 2023: An Open Source Assessment,” Secure World Foundation, April 2023, at https://swfound.org/media/207567/swf_global_counterspace_capabilities_2023_v2.pdf.
View in Google Scholar

Downloads

Published

09-12-2024

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

“Russo-Ukrainian War’s Impact on Space Security – The Western Perspective”. 2024. Politeja 21 (5(92): 235-58. https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.21.2024.92.11.