Nowa wojna, stara metoda. Koncepcje wykorzystania operacji peace-keeping jako instrumentu rozwiązywania rosyjsko-ukraińskiego konfliktu zbrojnego

Abstract

NEW WAR, OLD METHOD: CONCEPTS OF USING PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN ARMED CONFLICT SETTLEMENT

The aim of this article is to present concepts for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict based on the classic crisis response mechanism of a peacekeeping operation. Proposals for establishing such an operation—both in its traditional and expanded form—were developed in various variants between 2015 and 2018, suggesting the involvement of contingents from the European Union, the United Nations, or Multinational Forces. These ideas emerged as a direct response to the stalemate in implementing provisions of the Minsk Agreements. During the first phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war, experts pointed out the high adaptability of peacekeeping mechanisms to the conditions of modern armed conflicts, particularly hybrid warfare. This adaptability included expanding the mission’s policing and civilian capabilities. Such reflections resulted in numerous analytical and state-sponsored concepts for implementing a peacekeeping operation. However, these efforts were ultimately unsuccessful due to Moscow’s position. The final part of the article analyzes the reasons behind this failure and explores the capabilities of peacekeeping operations as an instrument for overcoming the conflict—particularly in a scenario where active military operations in Ukraine come to an end. In this context, the article outlines the preconditions for resuming discussions on deploying such a mission, assessed through the lens of ripeness theory and the concept of hurting stalemate.