Cyber Pearl Harbor is Not Coming: US Politics Between War and Peace
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.19.2022.79.07Keywords:
cybersecurity, cyber Pearl Harbor, USA, cyberwarAbstract
In 2012, the US Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta warned against an inevitable ‘cyber-Pearl Harbor’, an attack that would cause physical destruction and loss of life. Even though the darkest scenarios have not come true, his words shaped the perception of conflicts in cyberspace.1 Recently, between the cyberwar and cyberpeace, states started recognizing a grey zone area – aggressive and offensive actions below the threshold of armed aggression that enable gaining strategic advantage. The aim of the article is to describe and discuss the change in the American approach to managing conflicts in the cyberspace. The focus will be on describing the current state of the concept of the grey zone in the US strategic documents, as well as the premises for forecasting the development of the grey zone in the future.
Downloads
PlumX Metrics of this article
References
Barno D., Bensahel N., “Fighting and Winning in the »Gray Zone«”, War on the Rocks, 19 May 2015, at https://warontherocks.com/2015/05/fighting-and-winning-in-the-gray-zone/.
Google Scholar
Belo D., Carment D., Grey-Zone Conflict: Implications for Conflict Management, Calgary 2019.
Google Scholar
Bilms K., “Gray is Here to Stay: Principles from The Interim National Security Strategic Guidance on Competing in The Gray Zone”, Modern War Institute, 25 March 2021, at https://mwi.usma.edu/gray-is-here-to-stay-principles-from-the-interim-national-security-strategicguidance-on-competing-in-the-gray-zone/.
Google Scholar
Blinken A.J., “Additional Military Assistance for Ukraine”, U.S. Department of State, 26 February 2022, at https://www.state.gov/additional-military-assistance-for-ukraine/.
Google Scholar
Braw E., “Biden’s Gray-Zone Gaffe Highlights a Real Dilemma”, Defense One, 20 January 2022, at https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/01/bidens-gray-zone-gaffe-highlightsreal-dilemma/360982/.
Google Scholar
Casey G., “Remarks at the National Press Club”, U.S. Army, 14 August 2007, at https://www.army.mil/article/4436/aug_14_2007_remarks_at_the_national_press_club.
Google Scholar
Center for International and Strategic Studies, “Gray Zone Project”, at https://www.csis.org/programs/gray-zone-project.
Google Scholar
Davis II J.S. et al., Stateless Attribution: Toward International Accountability in Cyberspace, Santa Monica, CA 2017, https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2081.
Google Scholar
Farrell H., Glaser Ch.L., “The Role of Effects, Saliencies and Norms in US Cyberwar Doctrine”, Journal of Cybersecurity, vol. 3, no. 1 (2017), pp. 7-17, https://doi.org/10.1093/cybsec/tyw015.
Google Scholar
Freedberg S.J., “Cyber Warfare in The Grey Zone: Wake Up Washington”, Breaking Defense, 9 April 2019, at https://breakingdefense.com/2019/04/cyber-warfare-in-the-greyzone-wake-up-washington/.
Google Scholar
Gannon J.A. et al., “Why Did Russia Escalate Its Gray Zone Conflict in Ukraine?”, Lawfare, 16 January 2022, at https://www.lawfareblog.com/why-did-russia-escalate-its-grayzone-conflict-ukraine.
Google Scholar
Gaoyue F., Char J., Introduction to China’s Military Operations Other Than War, Singapore 2019, at https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/PR190225_Introductionto-Chinas-Military-Operations-Other-than-War.pdf.
Google Scholar
Gerasimov V., “The Value of Science Is in the Foresight New Challenges Demand Rethinking the Forms and Methods of Carrying out Combat Operations”, Military Review, January-February 2016, at https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/military-review/archives/english/militaryreview_20160228_art008.pdf.
Google Scholar
Gordon S., Rosenbach E., “America’s Cyber-Reckoning: How to Fix a Failing Strategy”, Foreign Affairs, vol. 101, no. 1 (2022), pp. 10-20.
Google Scholar
Gould J., Pomerleau M., “Why the US Should Fight Russia, China in the »Gray Zone«”, Navy Times, 4 January 2022, at https://www.navytimes.com/information-warfare/2022/01/04/why-the-us-should-fight-russia-china-in-the-gray-zone/?contentFeatureId=f0fmoahPVC2AbfL-2-1-.
Google Scholar
Harding L. et al., “Ukraine Fighting to Stop ‘a New Iron Curtain’ after Russian Invasion”, The Guardian, 24 February 2022, at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/24/russia-attacks-ukraine-news-vladimir-putin-zelenskiy-russian-invasion.
Google Scholar
Healey J., “The Implications of Persistent (and Permanent) Engagement in Cyberspace”, Journal of Cybersecurity, vol. 5, no. 1 (2019), https://doi.org/10.1093/cybsec/tyz008.
Google Scholar
Hoffman F.G., Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars, Arlington, VA 2007.
Google Scholar
JCS, Joint Doctrine Note 1-19. Competition Continuum, Washington, DC, 3 June 2019, at https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/jdn_jg/jdn1_19.pdf.
Google Scholar
Joint Chiefs of Staff, Joint Publication 3-0: Joint Operations, 11 August 2011, at https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=685338.
Google Scholar
Kello L., The Virtual Weapon and International Order, New Haven 2017, https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt1trkjd1.
Google Scholar
Kleczkowska A., “Explaining the Meaning of ‘Grey Zones’ in Public International Law Based on the Example of the Conflict in Ukraine”, Contemporary Central & East European Law, no. 1(133) (2019), pp. 75-93, https://doi.org/10.37232/cceel.2019.07.
Google Scholar
Kosseff J., “The Contours of ‘Defend Forward’ Under International Law”, 11th International Conference on Cyber Conflict (CyCon), Tallinn 2019, at https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2019/06/Art_17_The-Contours-of-Defend-Forward.pdf.
Google Scholar
Layton P., “Bringing the Grey Zone into Focus”, The Interpreter, 22 July 2021, at https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/bringing-grey-zone-focus.
Google Scholar
Libicki M.C., Crisis and Escalation in Cyberspace, Santa Monica, CA 2012, https://doi.org/10.7249/MG1215.
Google Scholar
Libicki M.C., Tkacheva O., “Cyberspace Escalation: Ladders or Lattices?”, in A. Ertan et al. (eds), Cyber Threats and NATO 2030: Horizon Scanning and Analysis, Tallinn 2020, at https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2020/12/Cyber-Threats-and-NATO-2030_Horizon-Scanning-and-Analysis.pdf.
Google Scholar
Maass R.W., “Salami Tactics: Faits Accomplis and International Expansion in the Shadow of
Google Scholar
Major War”, Texas National Security Review, vol 5, no. 1 (Winter 2021/2022), https://doi.org/10.15781/eyt5-2k84.
Google Scholar
McGuire M., Nation States, Cyberconflict and the Web of Profit, HP Development Company, 2021, at https://threatresearch.ext.hp.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/hp-bps-web-ofprofit-report_APR_2021.pdf.
Google Scholar
McLaughlin J., Twitter, 22 February 2022, at https://twitter.com/jmclaughlinSAIS/status/1495931329447407621.
Google Scholar
Morris L.J. et al., Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone: Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War, Santa Monica, CA 2019, https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2942.
Google Scholar
Nakashima E., “Cyberattack on Mideast Energy Firms Was Biggest Yet, Panetta Says”, The Washington Post, 11 October 2012, at https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/nationalsecurity/cyberattack-on-mideast-energy-firms-was-biggest-yet-panetta-says/2012/10/11/fe41a114-13db-11e2-bf18-a8a596df4bee_story.html.
Google Scholar
National Security Bureau, “(Mini)słownik BBN: Propozycje nowych terminów z dziedziny bezpieczeństwa”, at https://docplayer.pl/21264635-Mini-slownik-bbn-propozycje-nowychterminow-z-dziedziny-bezpieczenstwa.html.
Google Scholar
Ni V., “China Ponders How Russia’s Actions in Ukraine Could Reshape World Order”, The Guardian, 25 February 2022, at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/china-ponders-how-russia-actions-ukraine-reshape-world-order.
Google Scholar
Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “A Guide to Cyber Attribution”, 14 September 2018, https://www.dni.gov/files/CTIIC/documents/ODNI_A_Guide_to_Cyber_Attribution.pdf.
Google Scholar
Owens W.A., Dam K.W., Lin H.S. (eds), Technology, Policy, Law, and Ethics Regarding U.S.
Google Scholar
Acquisition and Use of Cyberattack Capabilities, Washington, DC 2009, https://doi.org/10.17226/12651.
Google Scholar
Pifer S., “Crimea: Six Years after Illegal Annexation”, The Brookings Institution, 10 March 2020, at https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/17/crimea-sixyears-after-illegal-annexation/.
Google Scholar
Popp G., Canna S., The Characterization and Conditions of the Gray Zone, A Virtual Think Tank Analysis (ViTTa), Boston, MA 2016, at http://nsiteam.com/social/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Final_NSI-ViTTa-Analysis_The-Characterization-and-Conditions-ofthe-Gray-Zone.pdf.
Google Scholar
Report: Military Operations in Cyberspace. Wednesday 5-Friday 7 September 2018. WP1635, Wilton Park, at https://www.wiltonpark.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/WP1635-Report.pdf.
Google Scholar
Rid T., Buchanan B., “Attributing Cyber Attacks”, Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 38, no. 1-2 (2015), pp. 4-37, https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2014.977382.
Google Scholar
Rogin J., “Biden Doesn’t Want to Change China. He Wants to Beat It”, The Washington Post, 10 February 2022, at https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/10/biden-china-strategy-competition/.
Google Scholar
Schaus J., “Competing in the Gray Zone”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 24 October 2018, at https://www.csis.org/analysis/competing-gray-zone-0.
Google Scholar
Schmitt M.N. (ed.), Tallinn Manual 2.0 on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Operations, Tallinn 2017, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316822524.
Google Scholar
Schneider J.G., “Persistent Engagement: Foundation, Evolution and Evaluation of a Strategy”, Lawfare, 10 May 2019, https://www.lawfareblog.com/persistent-engagement-foundation-evolution-and-evaluation-strategy.
Google Scholar
Smith M., “Russia Has Been at War with Ukraine for Years – In Cyberspace”, The Conversation, 7 February 2022. https://theconversation.com/russia-has-been-at-war-with-ukraine-for-years-in-cyberspace-176221.
Google Scholar
Starling C.G. et al., Seizing the Advantage: A Vision for the Next US National Defense Strategy, Washington, DC 2021.
Google Scholar
Takashi S., “Maritime Security Study Group Research Progress Report. Increasingly Complex and Sophisticated ‘Hybrid Warfare’ during Peacetime: Japan’s Comprehensive Response and the Japan-US Response”, NPI Research Note, 11 September 2020, at http://www.iips.org/en/research/NPI_Research_Note_20201005.pdf.
Google Scholar
The NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, “Ukrainian Parliamentary Election Interference (2014)”, at https://cyberlaw.ccdcoe.org/wiki/Ukrainian_parliamentary_election_interference_(2014).
Google Scholar
The White House, International Strategy for Cyberspace. Prosperity, Security, and Openness in a Networked World, May 2011, at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/international_strategy_for_cyberspace.pdf.
Google Scholar
The White House, The Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, March 2021, at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/NSC-1v2.pdf.
Google Scholar
United States Cyber Command, Achieve and Maintain Cyberspace Superiority: Command Vision for US Cyber Command, April 2018, at https://www.cybercom.mil/Portals/56/Documents/USCYBERCOM%20Vision%20April%202018.pdf.
Google Scholar
United States Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2020: Annual Report to Congress, at https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORTFINAL.PDF.
Google Scholar
United States Department of Defense, Summary: Department of Defense Cyber Strategy 2018, at https://media.defense.gov/2018/Sep/18/2002041658/-1/-1/1/CYBER_STRATEGY_SUMMARY_FINAL.PDF.
Google Scholar
United States Department of Defense, Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America. Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge, at https://www.cybercom.mil/Portals/56/Documents/USCYBERCOM%20Vision%20April%202018.pdf.
Google Scholar
Velde J.R. van de, “Make Cyberspace Great Again Too!”, Real Clear Defence, 23 July 2018, at https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/07/23/make_cyberspace_great_again_too_113634.html.
Google Scholar
Zetter K., “Inside the Cunning, Unprecedented Hack of Ukraine’s Power Grid”, Wired, 3 March 2016, at https://www.wired.com/2016/03/inside-cunning-unprecedented-hackukraines-power-grid/.
Google Scholar
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
