The Security of Nato’s Eastern Flank Following Decisions Made at the Allied Summit in Vilnius
Is It a Short-Term or Long-Term Solution?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.21.2024.93.10Keywords:
NATO, security, eastern flank, Allied Summit in VilniusAbstract
The unfolding events since 2014, particularly regarding the aggressive foreign policy and military activities of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, have led to a deterioration in the state of international security. Consequently, the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) found itself in a new situation that required a response and decisive action. The recent NATO summits have played a crucial role in shaping security policy and guiding strategic decisions for member states, notably in enhancing the security of NATO’s eastern flank. The primary research question addressed in this article is the extent to which the 2023 summit in Vilnius will genuinely contribute to improving security on NATO’s eastern flank. The significant military commitments made during the summit also carried a symbolic dimension. The article aims to analyse and evaluate the decisions taken by NATO at the Vilnius summit, utilising research techniques and methods such as interviews, the Delphi method and scenario analysis. The central thesis posited in the article is that NATO’s reaction, a consequence of decisions made during the Vilnius summit, will be crucial for strengthening the security of NATO’s eastern flank and the development of the Alliance’s military capabilities. To achieve this objective, the article will present selected scenarios for the development of the situation based on insights obtained from experts during interviews. Undoubtedly, the findings of this article will be an invaluable resource for the academic community, professionals, individuals in the security sector and policymakers in the political sphere.
Downloads
References
“118th Congress 1st Session S. RES. 251,” Govinfo, at https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-118sres251is/pdf/BILLS-118sres251is.pdf.
“2023 NATO Summit,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 28 June 2023, at https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/216570.htm.
Biziewski J., “Eastern Flank of EU and NATO – Challenge and Opportunity,” in J.M. Ramírez, J. Biziewski (eds), Security and Defence in Europe, Cham 2020, pp. 177-199, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12293-5_14. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12293-5_14
Bodalska B., “Szczyt B9 w Koszycach: Zagrożeniem bezpieczeństwa imperialne ambicji Rosji,” Euractiv, 1 March 2019, at https://www.euractiv.pl/section/polityka-regionalna/news/szczyt-b9-w-koszycach-zagrozeniem-bezpieczenstwa-imperialne-ambicji-rosji/.
Bondalski J., “Format bukaresztański jako strategiczny wymiar współpracy wschodniej flanki NATO,” in M. Żyła, P. Krzykowski, J. Grabowski (eds), Bezpieczeństwo północno-wschodniej flanki NATO, Warszawa 2020.
Bruszewski M., “Wojna Rosja-NATO w 2025 roku? Wyciek z tajnych analiz Bundeswehry,” Defence24, 15 January 2024, at https://defence24.pl/polityka-obronna/wojna-rosja-natow-2025-roku-wyciek-z-tajnych-analiz-bundeswehry.
“The Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation,” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 31 March 2023, at https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/fundamental_documents/1860586/?TSPD_101_R0=08765fb817ab200020098e7381cf075d925d9c74afe36f27416da9ae8a521413094e4d4d687e22b90819a666421430009574d2e95cbae3c5fc1b8db66394e8f6deae06ee14321a4eb2b744c66fa078733b84f52aa389562d5d09c24fa0594328.
Dyner A.M., Terlikowski M., “Białoruski wektor rosyjskiego zagrożenia dla NATO,” Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych, 10 July 2023, https://www.pism.pl/publikacje/bialoruski-wektor-rosyjskiego-zagrozenia-dla-nato.
“Experts React: How a Year of War in Europe Remade NATO, and What Comes Next,” Atlantic Council, 24 February 2023, at https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react-how-a-year-of-war-in-europe-remade-nato-and-what-comes-next/.
“February 24, 2022: The Day Russia Invaded Ukraine,” France 24, 14 February 2023, at https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230214-february-24-2022-the-day-russia-invaded-ukraine.
Fischer M.C., Bohrn B., “Four Key Takeaways from the 2023 NATO Vilnius Summit,” GED, 14 July 2023, at https://globaleurope.eu/globalization/four-key-takeaways-fromthe-2023-nato-vilnius-summit/.
Gotkowska J., “NATO’s Eastern Flank – A New Paradigm,” Centre for Eastern Studies, 13 July 2016, at https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2016-07-13/natos-eastern-flanka-new-paradigm.
Gotkowska J., Graca J., “NATO Summit in Vilnius: Breakthroughs and Unfulfilled Hopes,” Centre for Eastern Studies, 13 July 2023, at https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-07-13/nato-summit-vilnius-breakthroughs-and-unfulfilled-hopes.
Gramer R., Detsch J., “All Unquiet on NATO’s Eastern Flank,” Foreign Policy, 13 April 2023, at https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/13/nato-eastern-flank-battle-group-russiapoland-latvia-lithuania-estonia/.
Grand C., “A Summit of Substance: How NATO Can Prove Itself in Vilnius,” European Council on Foreign Relations, 6 July 2023, at https://ecfr.eu/article/a-summit-of-substancehow-nato-can-prove-itself-in-vilnius/.
Hodges B., Bugajski J., Wojcik R., Schmiedl C., “NATO Needs a Coherent Approach to Defending Its Eastern Flank,” War on the Rocks, 12 June 2020, at https://warontherocks.
com/2020/06/nato-needs-a-coherent-approach-to-defending-its-eastern-flank/.
Interviews with experts such as Colonel (Ret.) Professor Z. Zamiar, Colonel (Ret.) Professor A.W.L. N. Świętochowski, Lieutenant Colonel (Ret.) M. Karawaj, and Lieutenant Colonel (Ret.) J. Sabiniarz, February 2024.
Karpavičiūtė I., “Main Takeaways from NATO Summit in Vilnius,” Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review, vol. 21, no. 1 (2023), pp. 215-221, https://doi.org/10.47459/lasr.2023.21.8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.47459/lasr.2023.21.8
Koziej S., “Nowa zimna wojna na wschodniej flance – scenariusze dla rozwoju środowiska bezpieczeństwa państw Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej,” Pulaski Policy Papers, vol. 3 (2019), at https://pulaski.pl/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Pulaski_Policy_Paper_Nr_3_19.pdf.
“Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation,” Embassy of the Russian Federation in the Kingdom of Thailand, at https://thailand.mid.ru/en/o_rossii/vneshnyaya_politika/voennaya_doktrina_rf/?TSPD_101_R0=08765fb817ab200064d1b053a353bd755c14b9ce1456ccfbead18aecd8205911587ad223d1f70bfc083cfaf329143000384a93868df619187977d60002bdb871fa723eaee20b3d30d9f8291906ff79aecfaf6401c1b2d8e4cbc7acaf4e44518f.
“Military Strength Ranking,” GlobalFirePower, at https://www.globalfirepower.com/countrieslisting. php.
Monaghan S., Martinez S., Svendsen O., García Encina C., Droin M., “What Happened at NATO’s Vilnius Summit?,” Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 14 July 2023, at https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-happened-natos-vilnius-summit.
“NATO’s Military Presence in the East of the Alliance,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 8 December 2023, at https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm.
“NATO’s Role in Defence Industry Production,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 15 July 2024, at https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_222589.htm.
Niec P., Jensen B., “The Future of NATO’s Eastern Flank,” Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 10 July 2024, at https://www.csis.org/analysis/future-natos-eastern-flank.
Pawłowski K., Bukareszteńska Dziewiątka: współpraca państw wschodniej flanki NATO, Lublin 2020, at https://ies.lublin.pl/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ies-policy-papers-pl-2020-004.pdf.
Pifer S., “For a Secure and Stable Europe, Put Ukraine on a Definitive Path to NATO,” Brookings, 13 December 2023, at https://www.brookings.edu/articles/for-a-secure-and-stableeurope-put-ukraine-on-a-definitive-path-to-nato/.
“Prezydenci chcą wzmocnić wschodnią flankę NATO,” Biuro Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego, 22 July 2014, at https://www.bbn.gov.pl/pl/wydarzenia/5708,Prezydenci-chca-wzmocnicwschodnia-flanke-NATO.html.
Radomyski A., “Anti-Access/Area Denial jako integralny element strategii odstraszania Federacji Rosyjskiej,” in J.J. Piątek, R. Podgórzańska, S. Stempiński (eds), Bezpieczeństwo w badaniach i w praktyce, Toruń 2020.
“Rosyjskie czołgi wkroczą do Polski i Litwy: generałowie NATO opisali scenariusz agresji,” Jagiellonia, 24 January 2024, at https://jagiellonia.org/rosyjskie-czolgi-wkrocza-do-polskii-litwy-generalowie-nato-opisali-scenariusz-agresji-na-sojusz.
Schwartz R., “Wschodnia flanka NATO jednoczy siły,” Deutsche Welle, 5 November 2015, at https://www.dw.com/pl/wschodnia-flanka-nato-jednoczy-siły/a-18830586.
Wiatr M., “Rozszerzenie NATO na Wschód,” in M. Kulczycki, M. Musioł (eds), Transformacja Organizacji Traktatu Północnoatlantyckiego a uwarunkowania wewnętrzne i zewnętrzne tego procesu, Toruń 2020.
Zarychta S., Doktryny i strategie NATO 1949-2013, Warszawa 2014.
“The World Factbook,” Central Intelligence Agency, at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/.
“Vilnius Summit Communiqué,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 11 July 2023, at https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_217320.htm.
“Векторы развития военной стратегии,” Центр Стратегических Оценок и Прогнозов [“Vektory razvitiâ voennoj strategii,” Centr Strategičeskih Ocenok i Prognozov], 7 March 2019, at http://csef.ru/ru/oborona-i-bezopasnost/348/vektory-razvitiya-voennoj-strategii-8829.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.