Rozmyte mapy kognitywne jako technika prowadzenia ustrukturyzowanej analizy systemowej w obszarze nauk o bezpieczeństwie
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.18.2021.74.17Keywords:
security studies methodology, techniques of information analysis, system analysis, fuzzy cognitive mapsAbstract
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as a Technique for Conducting Structured Systems Analysis in the Area of Security Sciences
The article aims to present and introduce the main assumptions and procedures for creating fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) in the field of security studies. FCM are a tool for conducting a systematic analysis of phenomena with a complex structure and consisting of many interrelated elements. The text was divided into three main parts devoted accordingly to theoretical premises of the FCM (the system analysis, mental and cognitive maps), the FCM itself, and the procedure for creating and using RMK for analytical purposes.
Downloads
PlumX Metrics of this article
References
Analitical Standars, Intelligence Community Directive 203, [online] https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICD/ICD%20203%20Analytic%20Standards.pdf.
Google Scholar
Axelrod R., Structure of Decision: The Cognitive Maps of Political Elites, Princeton, New Jersey 1976.
Google Scholar
Bäcker R., Czechowska L., Gadomska G. i in., Metodologia badań politologicznych, Warszawa 2016.
Google Scholar
Bělohlávek R., Dauben J.W., Klir G.J., Fuzzy Logic and Mathematics: A Historical Perspective, Oxford 2017, https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190200015.001.0001.
Google Scholar
Buzzan T., Buzzan B., Mapy Twoich myśli. Mindmapping, czyli notowanie interaktywne, przeł.D. Rossowski, Łódź 2003.
Google Scholar
Chang W., Berdini E., Mandel D.R., Tetlock P.E., Restructuring Structured Analytic Techniques in Intelligence, „Intelligence and National Security” 2018, vol. 33, no. 3, s. 337-356, https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2017.1400230.
Google Scholar
Chmielewska-Banaszak D., Teorie i idee konstruktywistyczne w psychologii, „Principia” 2012, vol. 56, s. 45, [online] http://zbc.uz.zgora.pl/Content/27705/PDF/teorie_i_idee.pdf, 20 I 2021.
Google Scholar
Dickerson J.A., Kosko B., Virtual Worlds as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, „Presence” 1994, vol. 3, no. 2, s. 173-190.
Google Scholar
Donaj Ł., Teoria szarych systemów a prognozowanie w naukach społecznych. Przyczynek do dyskusji, „Przegląd Strategiczny” 2017, nr 10, s. 43-52, https://doi.org/10.14746/ps.2017.1.3.
Google Scholar
Drygiel-Bielińska M., Podejście systemowe w badaniach nad bezpieczeństwem, „Desecuritate” 2015, nr 2(1), s. 6-18.
Google Scholar
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: Advances in Theory, Methodologies, Tools and Applications, red. M. Glykas, Berlin 2010.
Google Scholar
Giabbanelli P.J., Modelling the Spatial and Social Dynamics of Insurgency, „Security Informatics” 2014, vol. 3, no. 1, s. 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1186/2190-8532-3-2.
Google Scholar
Giabbanelli P.J., Gray S., Aminpour P., Combining Fuzzy Cognitive Maps with Agent-based Modeling: Frameworks and Pitfalls of a Powerful Hybrid Modeling Approach to Understand Human-Environment Interactions, „Environmental Modelling & Software” 2017, vol. 95, s. 320-325, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.040.
Google Scholar
Gierszewski J., Model bezpieczeństwa społecznego na tle teorii systemów, „Colloquium Wydziału Nauk Humanistycznych i Społecznych” 2013, nr 2, s. 65-80.
Google Scholar
Gray S., Chanb A., Clarkb D., Jordanb R., Modeling the Integration of Stakeholder Knowledge in Social-Ecological Decision-Making: Benefits and Limitations to Knowledge Diversity, „Ecological Modelling” 2012, no. 229, s. 88-96.
Google Scholar
Gray S.A., Zanre E., Gray S.R.J., Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as Representations of Mental Models and Group Beliefs, [w:] Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Applied Sciences and Engineering: From Fundamentals to Extensions and Learning Algorithms, red. E. Papageorgiou, Berlin 2014, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39739-4_2.
Google Scholar
Groumpos P.P., Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: Basic Theories and Their Application to Complex Systems, [w:] Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, red. M. Glykas, Berlin 2010, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03220-2_1.
Google Scholar
Henly-Shepard S., Gray S.A., Cox L.J., The Use of Participatory Modeling to Promote Social Learning and Facilitate Community Disaster Planning, „Environmental Science & Policy” 2015, no. 45, s. 109-122, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.10.004.
Google Scholar
Heuer Jr. R.J., Adapting Academic Methods and Models to Gevernmental Needs: The CIA Experrience, „Military Issues Research Memos” 1978, s. 1-12, [online] https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA065258.pdf.
Google Scholar
Heuer Jr. R.J., Peterson R.H., Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed., Washington 2015.
Google Scholar
Jóźwiak K., Myślenie wizualne 2.0. Skuteczna komunikacja, Warszawa 2015.
Google Scholar
Jóźwiak K., Zwoliński S., Myślenie wizualne w biznesie. Ty też potrafisz rysować, Warszawa 2016.
Google Scholar
Kahneman D., Pułapki myślenia. O myśleniu szybkim i wolnym, przeł. P. Szymczak, Poznań 2012.
Google Scholar
Kasianiuk K., Podejście systemowe jako metoda analizy instytucjonalnej. Uwagi wstępne, 2016, s. 1-22, [online] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311678560.
Google Scholar
Klir G.K., Yuan B., Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic: Theory and Applications, New Jersey 1995.
Google Scholar
Kondrakiewicz D., Między porządkiem a chaosem. Faza nierównowagi systemu międzynarodowego, Lublin 2015.
Google Scholar
Kondrakiewicz D., System międzynarodowy jako kategoria w nauce o stosunkach międzynarodowych, „Teka Komisji Politologii i Stosunków Międzynarodowych” 2016, vol. 11, cz. 3, s. 75-94.
Google Scholar
Konecki K., Studia z metodologii badań jakościowych. Teoria ugruntowana, Warszawa 2000.
Google Scholar
Kosko B., Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, „International Journal of Man-Machine Studies” 1986, vol. 24, s. 65-75, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0020-7373(86)80040-2.
Google Scholar
Lebow R.N., Constructing Cause in International Relations, Cambridge 2014.
Google Scholar
Mazur M., Cybernetyka i charaktery, Warszawa 1976.
Google Scholar
Mental Maps in the Early Cold War Era, 1945-68, red. S. Casey, W. Jonathan, Basingstoke 2011.
Google Scholar
Mental Maps in the Era of Détente and the End of the Cold War 1968-91, red. S. Casey, W. Jonathan, Basingstoke 2015.
Google Scholar
Mental Maps in the Era of Two World Wars, red. S. Casey, W. Jonathan, Basingstoke 2008.
Google Scholar
Mickiewicz P., System bezpieczeństwa narodowego. W rozwiązaniach systemowych wybranych państw, Warszawa 2018.
Google Scholar
Mordeson J.N., Clark T.D., Wierman M.J., Applying Fuzzy Mathematics to Empirical Work in
Google Scholar
Political Science, [w:] Towards the Future of Fuzzy Logic, Berlin 2015.
Google Scholar
Nápoles G., Grau I., Bello R., Grau R., Two Steps Learning of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Prediction and Knowledge Discovery on the HIV-1 Drug Resistancea, „Expert Systems with Applications” 2014, vol. 41, s. 821-830, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.012.
Google Scholar
Nyaki A., Gray S.A., Lepczyk C.A., Skibins J.C., Rentsch D., Local-Scale Dynamics and Local Drivers of Bushmeat Trade, „Conservation Biology”, vol. 28, no. 5, s. 1403-1414.
Google Scholar
Nye Jr. J.S., Konflikty międzynarodowe. Wprowadzenie do teorii historii, przeł. M. Madej, Warszawa 2009.
Google Scholar
Osoba O.A., Kosko B., Fuzzy Cognitive Maps of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism, „Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology” 2017, vol. 14, no. 1, s. 17-32, https://doi.org/10.1177/1548512916680779.
Google Scholar
Papageorgiou K., Singh P.K., Papageorgiou E., Chudasama H., Bochtis D., Stamoulis G., Fuzzy Cognitive Map-Based Sustainable Socio-Economic Development Planning for Rural Communities, „Sustainability” 2020, vol. 12, no. 1, s. 1-31.
Google Scholar
Pawłuszko T., System międzynarodowy w polskiej nauce o stosunkach międzynarodowych, „Rocznik Politologiczny” 2014, nr 10, s. 7-28.
Google Scholar
Ragin Ch.C., Redesigning Social Inquiry: Fuzzy Sets and Beyond, Chicago–New York 2008, https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226702797.001.0001.
Google Scholar
Reports, [online] https://www.weforum.org/reports.
Google Scholar
Richards Jr. H.J., Peterson R.H., Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed., Washington 2015.
Google Scholar
Sanjian G.S., Arms Transfers, Military Balances, and Interstate Relations: Modeling Power Balance versus Power Transition Linkages, „The Journal of Conflict Resolution” 2003, vol. 47, no. 6, s. 711-727, https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002703258801.
Google Scholar
Sanjian G.S., Fuzzy Set Theory and U.S. Arms Transfers: Modeling the Decision-Making Process, „American Journal of Political Science” 1988, vol. 32, no. 4, s. 1018-1046, https://doi.org/10.2307/2111199.
Google Scholar
Sienkiewicz P., Analiza systemowa. Podstawy i zastosowania, Warszawa 1994.
Google Scholar
Skiba M., Wykorzystanie rozmytych map kognitywnych FCM jako narzędzia wspomagającego proces podejmowania decyzji w planowaniu przestrzennym, „Teka Komisji Urbanistyki i Architektury” 2018, t. 46, s. 557-564.
Google Scholar
Skulimowski A.M., Kluz D., Wielorundowa analiza delficka jako narzędzie grupowego wspomagania decyzji, [w:] Analiza i wspomaganie decyzji w praktyce gospodarczej, Katowice 2016.
Google Scholar
Spitzer M., Jak uczy się mózg, przeł. M. Guzowska-Dąbrowska, Warszawa 2011.
Google Scholar
Sykulski L., Rozmyte mapy kognitywne – wprowadzenie | Odc. 89 – dr Leszek Sykulski, [online] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDDno5oey8o&feature=emb_title.
Google Scholar
Świeboda H., Prognozowanie zagrożeń bezpieczeństwa narodowego Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej, Warszawa 2017.
Google Scholar
Tetlock P.E., Superprognozowanie. Sztuka i nauka prognozowania, przeł. M. Markiewicz, Warszawa 2017.
Google Scholar
Tsadiras A.K., Kouskouvelis I., Margaritis L.G., Fuzzy Cognivite Maps as a Decision Support System for Political Decisions: The case of „Great Albania”, Conference: Proceedings of the 5th Hellenic-European Conference on Computer Mathematics and its Applications (HERCMA-01), Athens, Hellas, 20-22 IX 2001, [online] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/221157040_Fuzzy_cognitive_map_as_a_decision_support_system_for_political_decisions_The_case_of_Great_Albania.
Google Scholar
Zadeh L.A., Fuzzy Sets, „Information and Control” 1965, vol. 8, s. 338-353, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0019-9958(65)90241-X.
Google Scholar
Zadeh L.A., Fuzzy Systems Theory: A Framework for the Analysis of Humanistic Systems, [w:] Systems Methodology in Social Science Research: Frontiers in Systems Research (Implications for the social sciences), red. R. Cavallo, Dordrecht 1982, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3204-8_3.
Google Scholar
Downloads
Published
Versions
- 2022-02-25 (2)
- 2021-12-15 (1)
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
