Rywalizacja chińsko-amerykańska w drugiej dekadzie XXI wieku: Analiza porównawcza polityki Baracka Obamy i Donalda Trumpa
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.18.2021.74.19Keywords:
China, United States, power transition, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Joe BidenAbstract
Sino-American Rivalry in the Second Decade of the 21st Century: A Comparative Analysis of Barack Obama and Donald Trump Policies
The Sino-American trade war has become a symbol of rivalry for leadership in the international system. It also attracts growing attention to the problem of possible change to the regional and global hegemony. The debate with its possible ramifications is clear to academics, the media and political elites. However, it has focused on a limited scope of factors and mostly at the leadership level of, most notably, the United States of America. Considering its complexity, the issue of US policy towards China should be analyzed at various levels. These include the presidents, their collaborators, domestic politics and US strategy, and, finally, the international system as it experiences the relative change of power distribution. The main goal of this article is to analyze the recent US administrations’ strategy towards the People’s Republic of China. This is in the context of changes to the international system, focusing on the relative change of power distribution. The hypothesis driving this article states that the US strategy towards China is a response to the changing relative distribution of power in the regional and global system. It follows that American administrations differ rather in methods than in goals of foreign policy. This text is prepared with reference to the Power Transition Theory of A. Organski and J. Kugler, and the research is based on the US strategic documents’ analysis and statistical analysis of the power distribution in the system.
Downloads
References
A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a Shared Vision, Department of State, Washington 2019, s. 4, [online] Free-and-Open-Indo-Pacific-4Nov2019.pdf (state.gov).
Allison G., Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, Boston–New York 2017.
Barbasiewicz O., Grabowski M., Trojnar E., Changing Security Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, [w:] Security Dilemmas and Challenges in 21st Century Asia, red. O. Barbasiewicz, M. Grabowski, E. Trojnar, Berlin 2020, https://doi.org/10.3726/b17044.
Blackwill R., Trump’s Foreign Policies Are Better Than They Seem, „Council Special Report” 2019, no. 84, Council on Foreign Relations, New York 2019.
Campbell K., Andrews B., Explaining the U.S. ‘Pivot to Asia, August 2013, Chatham House, [online] www.chathamhouse.org.
Campbell K., Patel N., Singh V., The Power of Balance: America in Asia, Washington 2008.
Campbell K., Sullivan J., Competition Without Catastrophe: How America Can Both Challenge and Coexist with China, „Foreign Affairs” 2019, vol. 98, no. 5, s. 96-111.
Clinton H., America’s Pacific Century, „Foreign Policy” 2011, 11 X, [online] https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/americas-pacific-century/.
Colby E., Michell W., The Age of Great Power Competition: How the Trump Administration Refashioned American Strategy, „Foreign Affairs” 2020, vol. 99, no. 1, s. 118-130.
Duggan N., Grabowski M., The Influence of Covid-19 on the Power Transition between the United States and China: The Case of Southeast Asia, „Irish Studies in International Affairs” 2021, vol. 32, no. 1, s. 1-20.
Elms D., The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership: Policy Innovations and Impacts, GED Working Paper, Singapore 2018, [online] http://aei.pitt.edu/102526/1/MT_Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Trans-Pacific_Partnership.pdf.
Fels E., Shifting Power in the Asia-Pacific? The Rise of China, Sino-US Competition and Regional Middle Power Allegiance, Cham 2017.
Foot R., Power Transitions and Great Power Management: Three Decades of China–Japan–US Relations, „Pacific Review” 2017, vol. 30, no. 6, s. 829-842, https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2017.1303535.
Gill B., The United States and Asia in 2015: Across the Region, US-China Competition Intensifies, „Asian Survey” 2016, vol. 56, no. 1, s. 8-18, https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2016.56.1.8.
Gili A., Gili M., Why China Has Not Caught Up Yet: Military-Technological Superiority and the Limits of Imitation, Reverse Engineering, and Cyber Espionage, „International Security” 2018, vol. 43, no. 3, s. 141-189, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00337.
Gill B., The United States and Asia in 2016: Challenges in the Region and on the Home Front, „Asian Survey” 2017, vol. 57, no. 1, s. 10-20, https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2017.57.1.10.
Glaser B., Pivot to Asia: Prepare for Unintended Consequences, [online] http://csis.org/files/publication/120413_gf_glaser.pdf.
Glaser B., Price H., Continuity Prevails in Biden’s First 100 Days, „Comparative Connections” 2021, vol. 23, no. 1, s. 29-42.
Godement F., The United States and Asia in 2010: Uncertain Relations, „Asian Survey” 2011, vol. 51, no. 1, s. 5-17, https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2011.51.1.5.
Grabowski M., Wiek Pacyfiku – polityka Stanów Zjednoczonych wobec regionu Azji i Pacyfiku po roku 1989, Kraków 2012.
Grabowski M., Duggan N., Donald Trump Presidency and the Transformation of Sino-American Relations: Does Asymmetric Economic Interdependence Matter?, „Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia” 2021, vol. 20, no. 2.
Grabowski M., Pugacewicz T., Is Trans-Pacific Partnership a Challenge for Transatlantic Relations? A Comparative Analysis of TPP and TTIP in the Context of the US Global Role, [w:] Poland in Transatlantic Relations after 1989: Miracle Fair, red. M. Zachara, Newcastle upon Tyne 2017, s. 86-124.
Holslag J., The United States and Asia in 2019: Grandstanding, „Asian Survey” 2020, vol. 60, no. 1, s. 8-20, https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2020.60.1.8.
IMF Members’ Quotas and Voting Power, and IMF Board of Governors, [online] https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/members.aspx.
Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, The White House, Washington 2021.
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Subscriptions and Voting Power of Member Countries, [online] http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/795101541106471736/IBRDCountryVotingTable. pdf.
Johnston A.I., China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and Challenge in Beijing’s International Relations, „International Security” 2019, vol. 44, no. 2, s. 9-60, https://doi. org/10.1162/isec_a_00360.
Joshi Y., Atmakuri A., Biden’s Indo-Pacific Strategy: Expectations and Challenges, Singapore 2021.
Kan S., U.S. China Military Contacts: Issues for Congress, CRS Report for Congress, Washington 2013, s. 4.
Katagiri N., Strategy and Grand Strategy for the Future of Asia, „Asian Survey” 2015, vol. 55, no. 6, s. 1170-1192, https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2015.55.6.1170.
Kim W., Gates S., Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China, „International Area Studies Review” 2015, vol. 18, no. 3, s. 219-226, https://doi.org/10.1177/2233865915598545.
Kissinger H., The Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations: Conflict is a Choice, Not a Necessity, „Foreign Affairs” 2012, vol. 91, no. 2, s. 44-55.
Kugler J., Organski A.F.K, The Power Transition: A Retrospective and Prospective Evaluation, [w:] Handbook of War Studies, red. M. Midlarsky, New York 2011, s. 171-194.
Logan J., China, America, and the Pivot to Asia, „Policy Analysis” 2013, nr 717, Cato Institute.
Mastro O., The Stealth Superpower: How China Hid Its Global Ambitions, „Foreign Affairs” 2019, vol. 98, no. 1, s. 31-39.
Mearsheimer J., Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order, „International Security” 2019, vol. 43, no. 4, s. 7-50, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00342.
National Security Strategy of the United States of America 2015, The White House, Washington 2015, [online] https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_strategy_2.pdf.
National Security Strategy of the United States of America, The White House, Washington 2017, [online] https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.
Organski A.F.K., World Politics, New York 1958 (1968).
Organski A.F.K., Kugler J., The War Ledger, Chicago 1980, https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226351841.001.0001.
Paal D., The United States in Asia in 2011: Obama Determined to Bring America „Back” to Asia, „Asian Survey” 2012, vol. 52, no. 1, s. 6-14, https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2012.52.1.6.
Paal D., The United States and Asia in 2012: Domestic Politics Takes Charge, „Asian Survey” 2013, vol. 53, no. 1, s. 12-21, https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2013.53.1.12.
Ratner E., Rebalancing to Asia with an Insecure China, „The Washington Quarterly” 2013, vol. 32, no. 2, s. 21-38, https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2013.791080.
Roehrig T., The United States and Asia in 2020: Free, Open and Worried?, „Asian Survey” 2021, vol. 61, no. 1, s. 11-20.
Schier S., Eberly T., The Trump Presidency: Outsider in the Oval Office, Lanham 2017.
Shambaugh D., U.S.-China Rivalry in Southeast Asia: Power Shift or Competitive Coexistence?, „International Security” 2018, vol. 42, no. 4, s. 85-127, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00314.
Shareholders, Asian Development Bank, [online] https://www.adb.org/site/investors/creditfundamentals/shareholders.
Silove N., The Pivot before the Pivot: U.S. Strategy to Preserve the Power Balance in Asia, „International Security” 2018, vol. 40, no. 4, s. 45-88, https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00238.
Simon S., The US Rebalance and Southeast Asia: A Work in Progress, „Asian Survey” 2015, vol. 5, no. 3, s. 572-595, https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2015.55.3.572.
Summary of the National Defense Strategy: Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge, Department of Defense 2018, [online] https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf.
Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense, The White House, I 2012, [online] https://archive.defense.gov/news/Defense_Strategic_Guidance.pdf.
Sutter R., The U.S. and Asia in 2018: North Korea Easing, Confronting China, „Asian Survey” 2019, vol. 59, no. 1, s. 10-20, https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2019.59.1.10.
Sutter R., The United States and Asia in 2017: The Impact of the Trump Administration, „Asian Survey” 2018, vol. 58, no. 1, s. 10-20, https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2018.58.1.10.
The Department of Defense, Indo-Pacific Strategy Report: Preparedness, Partnerships, and Promoting a Networked Region, Department of Defense, Washington 2019, [online] https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jul/01/2002152311/-1/-1/1/DEPARTMENT-OF-DEFENSE-INDO-PACIFIC-STRATEGY-REPORT-2019.PDF.
The National Security Strategy of the United States 2010, The White House, Washington 2010, [online] https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf.
Westad O., The Sources of Chinese Conduct: Are Washington and Beijing Fighting a New Cold War?, „Foreign Affairs” 2019, vol. 98, no. 5, s. 86-95.
Yahuda M., The International Politics of the Asia-Pacific, London–New York 2019, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315543291.
Yan Xuetong, The Age of Uneasy Peace: Chinese Power in a Divided World, „Foreign Affairs” 2019, vol. 98, no. 5, s. 40-46.
Zakaria F., The New China Scare: Why America Shouldn’t Panic About Its Latest Challenger, „Foreign Affairs” 2020, vol. 99, no. 1, s. 52-69.
Zhu Z., Power Transition and US-China Relations: Is War Inevitable?, „Journal of International and Area Studies” 2005, vol. 12, no. 1, s. 1-24.
Downloads
Published
Versions
- 2022-02-25 (2)
- 2021-12-15 (1)
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
