In Anticipation of New Migration Crises

Resilience and Anticipatory Governance in the EU’s Migration Management Framework




anticipatory governance, early warning, preparedness, resilience, migration crisis, European Union, crisis management


The concept of resilience has been commonly recognized as a new leitmotif of security governance in the European Union. In the aftermath of the so-called ‘migration crisis’, resilience has spilled over migration and border management, promoting the notions of resilient Schengen and broadly understood technologization of border management, to name a few. This trend has been only strengthened during the COVID-19 pandemic and the most recent border and refugee crises on the EU eastern border, which have mainstreamed the notions of anticipation, preparedness, and the ability to withstand shocks and disturbances external to the EU as a whole. Building on these developments, this article discusses how anticipatory governance interlocks with resilience within the newly proposed EU migration crisis management framework. In doing so, it provides a more nuanced picture of the EU’s post-2015 and 2016 approach to human mobility, asylum, and border protection. Such a take will also allow us to see how exactly the EU has adapted to new migratory circumstances, while conceptualizing the uncertainties related to increased migratory flows and operationalizing specific anticipatory and resilience-centered policy responses.


Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Maciej Stępka, Jagiellonian University in Kraków

A political scientist and an assistant professor at the Institute of European Studies, Jagiellonian University. He earned his degrees from the Jagiellonian University (MA), University of Amsterdam (MSc), and University of Warsaw (PhD). He specializes in new and critical security studies, focusing mainly on the migrationsecurity nexus, EU crisis management, securitization studies, and research on risk and resilience. His most recent publications include an open access monograph entitled Identifying Security Logics in the EU Policy Discourse: The ‘Migration Crisis’ and the EU by Springer.


Boyd E. et al., “Anticipatory Governance for Social-Ecological Resilience”, Ambio, vol. 44, no. 1 (2015), pp. 149-161, DOI:

Commission Recommendation (EU) 2020/1366 of 23 September 2020 on an EU Mechanism for Preparedness and Management of Crises Related to Migration, C/2020/6469.

Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions on the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, COM/2020/609 final.

European Council of Refugees and Exiles, “Alleviating or Exacerbating Crises? The Regulation on Crisis and Force Majeure”, Policy Note, no. 32 (2021), at

Fuerth L., “Operationalizing Anticipatory Governance”, Prism, vol. 2, no. 4 (2011), pp. 31-46.

Gruszczak A., “Resilience and Mitigation in Security Management: Concepts and Concerns”, Forum Scientiae Oeconomia, vol. 4, no. 1 (2016), pp. 7-23.

Gruszczak A., Intelligence Security in the European Union. Building a Strategic Intelligence Community, London 2016, DOI:

Holling C.S., “Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems”, Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, vol. 4 (1973), pp. 1-23, DOI:

Jeandesboz J., Smartening Border Security in the European Union: An Associational Inquiry”, Security Dialogue, vol. 47, no. 4 (2016), pp. 292-309, DOI:

Krieger K., “Resilience and Risk Studies”, in Routledge Handbook on Risk Studies, A. Burgess, A. Alemanno, J. Zinn (eds), London−New York 2016.

Lentzos F., Rose N., “Governing Insecurity: Contingency Planning, Protection, Resilience”, Economy and Society, vol. 38, no. 2 (2009), pp. 230-254, DOI:

Lloyd N., Gauret F., “Where is Europe Finding the Money to Host Millions of Ukrainian Refugees?”,, 20 May 2022, at

Manyena S.B., “The Concept of Resilience Revisited”, Disasters, vol. 30, no. 4 (2006), pp. 434-450, DOI:

Marin L., “The Deployment of Drone Technology in Border Surveillance: Between Techno-Securitization and Challenges to Privacy and Data Protection”, in Surveillance, Privacy and Security. Citizens’ Perspectives, M. Friedewald et al. (eds), London−New York 2017. DOI:

Martin-Breen P., Anderies J., Resilience: A Literature Review, New York 2011.

Mazurkiewicz A., “The Dynamics of the Contemporary Military Role: In Search of Flexibility”, Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska. Sectio K. Politologia, vol. 25, no. 2 (2018), pp. 7-24, DOI:

Muiderman K. et al., “Four Approaches to Anticipatory Climate Governance: Different Conceptions of the Future and Implications for the Present”, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, vol. 11, no. 6 (2020), DOI:

Munster R. van, Securitizing Immigration: Politics of Risk in the EU, London 2009, DOI:

Nimark A., “Post-Lisbon Developments in EU Crisis Management: The Integrated Political Crisis Response (IPCR) Arrangements”, in Ethics and Law for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear & Explosive Crises, D.P. O’Mathúna, I. de Miguel Beriain (eds), Cham 2019, DOI:

Paul R., Roos Ch., “Towards a New Ontology of Crisis? Resilience in EU Migration Governance”, European Security, vol. 28, no. 4 (2019), pp. 393-412, DOI:

Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council Addressing Situations of Crisis and Force Majeure in the Field of Migration and Asylum, COM(2020) 613 final.

Schmidt J., “Intuitively Neoliberal? Towards a Critical Understanding of Resilience Governance”, European Journal of International Relations, vol. 21, no. 2 (2015), pp. 402-426, DOI:

Stępka M., Identifying Security Logics in the EU Policy Discourse. The ‘Migration Crisis’ and the EU, Cham 2022, DOI:

Stępka M., “Rezyliencja jako paradygmat bezpieczeństwa w czasach przewlekłych kryzysów”, Przegląd Politologiczny, vol. 26, no. 2 (2021), pp. 105-117, DOI:

UNHCR, “Ukraine Refugee Situation”, Operational Data Portal, at

Wanat Z., “Polish Cities Feel the Strain of Helping Ukrainian Refugees”, Politico, 2 June 2022, at A., Searching for Safety, New Brunswick 1988.

Wolff S., “Managing the Refugee Crisis: A Divided and Restrictive Europe?”, in Governance and Politics in the Post-Crisis European Union, R. Coman, A. Crespy, V.A. Schmidt (eds), Cambridge 2020, DOI:




How to Cite

Stępka, Maciej. 2022. “In Anticipation of New Migration Crises: Resilience and Anticipatory Governance in the EU’s Migration Management Framework”. Politeja 19 (4 (79):151-65.



Understanding Contemporary Security