Dwa kryzysy i rewolucja: wydarzenia 2004 i 2014 r. na Ukrainie w perspektywie porównawczej
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.12.2015.34_1.03Keywords:
regime survival, regime collapse, V. Yanukovych, crisis, Ukraine, political revolutionAbstract
Two Crises and a Revolution: 2004 and 2014 Events in Ukraine in Comparative Perspective
Why has V. Yanukovych been long able to survive while L. Kuchma failed? This paper seeks to locate the factors leading to the quick downfall of the Kuchma’s regime in Ukraine in 2004 in comparison to the extended regime survival in 2014. Drawing on the political science theories of dynamics of hybrid regimes and revolution, the author advances two theses: first, the mass mobilization is necessary but not a sufficient condition for the collapse of an autocrat. Comparing the two crisis episodes of 2004 and 2014 in Ukraine by using ten indicators, the author argues that the regime’s organizational capacity initially was higher than both Western democratic pressure and “people’s power”. Only after the third violent attempt to disperse Maidan had failed, the “power vertical” collapsed what led to the creation of a new parliamentary majority and effective loss of power by the incumbent. Second, unlike the crisis of 2004 the crisis of 2014 has not been resolved through the compromise and turned into a revolution. Applying eleven, analytically defined, attributes of the revolution to the Orange events of 2004 resulted only in three matches, while in 2014 there are already seven matches (breakdown of the state, international pressure, economic decline, conflict between elites, mass mobilization, “multiple sovereignty” and violence) and two others (the change of regime and the change of social structure) is theoretically possible. The presence of these attributes suggests that in 2014 Ukraine had a political, but could hardly have a social revolution.
Downloads
References
Bogoslovsʹka: Ìz Partìï regìonìv hočutʹ vijti 60 lûdej, ale ïm pogrožuûtʹ, TVÌ, 21 XII 2013, [online] http://tvi.ua/new/2013/12/21/bohoslovska_iz_partiyi_rehioniv_khochut_vyyty_60_lyudey_ale_yim_pohrozhuyut. Dacûk S., Teror v Ukraïnì ta jogo perspektivi, „Ukraïnsʹka pravda” 2014, 23 I, [online] http://blogs.pravda.com.ua/authors/datsuk/52e0d98694129/.
Majdan‑2013: hto stoïtʹ, čomu ì za ŝo?, Fond „Demokratičnì ìnìcìativi ìm. Ìlʹka Kučerìv”, [online] http://www.dif.org.ua/ua/events/gvkrlgkaeths.htm.
Macievskij Û., Smena, tranzit ili cikl: dinamika političeskogo režima v Ukraine v 2004‑2010 gg., „Polis” 2010, nr 5.
Macìêvsʹkij Û., Vìd haosu do porâdku: či stabìlʹnij polìtičnij režim u post‑pomarančevìj Ukraïnì?, „Polìtičnij menedžment” 2011, nr 5.
Macìêvsʹkij Û., Spokusi avtoritarizmom, „Kritika” 2011, nr 5‑6, [online] http://krytyka.com/ua/articles/spokusy-avtorytaryzmom.
Macìêvsʹkij Û., Ukraïna pìslâ Vìlʹnûsa: âk viživatime režim, „Kritika” 2013, nr 7‑8, [online] http://krytyka.com/ua/articles/ukrayina‑pislya‑vilnyusa‑yak‑vyzhyvatyme‑rezhym.
Novikov K., Revolûciâ 4.0, „Gazeta.Ru” 2013, 17 XII, [online] http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2013/12/13_a_5802573.shtml.
Pastuhov V., Ukraina kak gorâŝaâ šina meždu Rossiej i Zapadom, „Solta” 2014, 20 II, [online] http://www.colta.ru/articles/society/2139.
Regional Markov: Frakciâ Partii regionov deržitsâ lišʹ na strahe, Liga, 12 IX 2013, [online] http://news.liga.net/video/politics/898867‑regional_markov_fraktsiya_partii_regionov_derzhitsya_lish_na_strakhe.htm.
Skok A., Bunt oligarhov, „Zavtra” 2013, 18 XII, [online] http://www.zavtra.ru/content/view/bunt‑oligarhov/.
D’Аnieri P., Explaining the Success and Failure of Post‑Communist Revolutions, „Communist and Post‑Communist Studies” 2006, Vol. 39, nr 3, [online] http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2006.06.002.
Geddes B., What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty Years, „Annual Review of Political Science” 1999, Vol. 2, [online] http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115.
Goldstone J., The Revolution in the Ukraine, NewPopulationBomb, 2 III 2014, [online] http://newpopulationbomb.com/2014/03/02/the‑revolution‑in‑the‑ukraine/.
Hale H., Regime Cycles: Democracy, Autocracy, and Revolution in Post‑Soviet Eurasia, „World Politics” 2005, Vol. 58, nr 1, [online] http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/wp.2006.0019.
Levitsky S., Way L., Competitive Authoritarianism. Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War, New York 2010, Problems of International Politics.
McFaul M., Transitions from Postcommunism, „Journal of Democracy” 2005, Vol. 16, nr 3.
Ruiz Ramas R., Ukraine’s Euromaidan: A „Tyllian Revolution” that Can Lead to the Second Crimean War, Political Studies Association, 4 III 2014, [online] http://www.psa.ac.uk/insight‑plus/blog/ukraine%E2%8099s‑euromaidan‑tillyan‑revolution‑can‑lead‑second‑crimean‑war#comment‑6701.
Schedler A., The New Institutionalism in the Study of Authoritarian Regimes, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas A.C., 2009, Documentos de Trabajo, nr 215, [online] http://libreriacide.com/librospdf/DTEP‑215.pdf.
Skocpol Th., States and Social Revolutions. A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia and China, Cambridge 1979.
Tilly Ch., European Revolutions, 1492‑1992, Oxford 1993, Making of Europe.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.