Proces starzenia się społeczeństw
O potrzebie badań w zakresie (nie)uchronności zmian demograficznych a (nie)trafności polityki społecznej państwa w świetle doświadczeń Japonii, Korei Południowej, Niemiec i Polski
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.18.2021.75.13Keywords:
demographic crisis, cultural changes, social policy, economy, Japan, South Korea, Germany, PolandAbstract
The Process of Ageing of Societies: On the Need for Research on (In)Resilience of Demographic Change and (In)Appropriateness of State Social Policy in the Context of the Japanese, South Korean, German and Polish Experiences
The existence of a low birth rate has so far frequently been associated with the repercussions of either armed conflicts or epidemics. Economic crises, religious upheavals, cultural changes or industrial revolutions have also been cited as causes, albeit less frequently. The phenomenon of the ageing of societies which we are currently observing, however, has – by all indications – other and not yet fully defined causes. It is therefore worth considering not only why this is happening, but also if the phenomenon stems from the same causes everywhere. It may well be that the phenomenon of ageing societies occurs in various parts of the globe, but this does not prove that it is an automatism, caused by the same combination of factors. Therefore, it is crucial to clarify which of the defined factors play a catalytic role in the process under consideration, and which factors are indifferent or of marginal significance in relation to it, as well as whether it is possible, on the basis of comparative analysis of the cases of the proposed countries, to ascribe universal importance to all of them?
Downloads
PlumX Metrics of this article
References
Abnehmende Bevölkerung – zunehmende Probleme. Der demografische Wandel in Deutschland als Herausforderung, red. P. Massing, K. Pohl, Frankfurt am Main 2013.
Google Scholar
Adachi Y., Public Policy as Public Discourse. Policy Thinking and Political Thinking, „Journal of Public Policy Studies” 2010, vol. 9.
Google Scholar
Ageing in East Asia: Challenges and Policies for the Twenty-First Century, red. T. Fu, R. Hughes, London 2009.
Google Scholar
Bieber D., Sorgenkind demografischer Wandel?: Warum die Demografie nicht an allem schuld ist, München 2011.
Google Scholar
Billari F.C., Kohler H.P., Patterns of Low and Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe, „Population Studies. A Journal of Demography” 2004, vol. 58, no. 2, s. 161-176, https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472042000213695.
Google Scholar
Brosius-Gersdorf F., Demografischer Wandel und Familienförderung, Tübingen 2011, https://doi.org/10.1628/978-3-16-151285-8.
Google Scholar
Choi S.J., Active Ageing in South Korea, [w:] Active Ageing in Asia, red. A. Walker, Ch. Aspalter, Abingdon 2015.
Google Scholar
Coulmas F., Population Decline and Ageing in Japan – The Social Consequences, London 2007, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203962022.
Google Scholar
Crocker W.R., The Japanese Population Problem: The Coming Crisis, London 2011, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203841358.
Google Scholar
Demografischer Wandel in Deutschland: Befunde und Reaktionen, red. U. Heilemann, Berlin 2010.
Google Scholar
Doblhammer G., Ageing, Care Need and Quality of Life: The Perspective of Care Givers and People in Need of Care, Wiesbaden 2010, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-92335-2.
Google Scholar
Frątczak E., Population Ageing in Poland, [w:] Population Ageing in Central and Eastern Europe: Societal and Policy Implications, red. A. Hoff, Abingdon 2016.
Google Scholar
Goldstein J.R., Sobotka T., Jasilioniene A., The End of “Lowest-Low” Fertility?, „Population and Development Review” 2009, vol. 35, no. 4, s. 663-699, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00304.x.
Google Scholar
Gürel E., Tat M., SWOT Analysis: A Theoretical Review, „The Journal of International Social Research” 2017, vol. 10, no. 51, s. 346-370, https://doi.org/10.17719/jisr.2017.1832.
Google Scholar
Hara T., Germany's declining birthrate and changing family policy, „The Journal of Population Studies” 2008, vol. 42.
Google Scholar
Hara T., Demography in General - Recent Population Trends and Research Issues, „The Journal of Population Studies” 2020, vol. 56.
Google Scholar
Hausmann A., Demografischer Wandel und Kultur: Veränderungen im Kulturangebot und der Kulturnachfrage, Wiesbaden 2009, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-91445-9.
Google Scholar
Helms M.M., Nixon J., Exploring SWOT Analysis – Where Are We Now? A Review of Academic Research from the Last Decade, „Journal of Strategy and Management” 2010, vol. 3, nr 3, s. 215-251, https://doi.org/10.1108/17554251011064837.
Google Scholar
Hill T., Westbrook R., SWOT Analysis: It’s Time for a Product Recall, „Long Range Planning” 1997, vol. 30, no. 1, s. 46-52, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0024-6301(96)00095-7.
Google Scholar
Horn M., Demographischer Wandel in Deutschland: Die lokale und regionale Perspektive, Berlin 2007.
Google Scholar
Imploding Populations in Japan and Germany: A Comparison, red. F. Coulmas, R. Lützeler, Leiden 2011.
Google Scholar
Johnson P., A History of the Modern World from 1917 to the 1980s, London 1983.
Google Scholar
Jun K.H., 유럽의 인구동향 및 저출산 대응 가족정책과 한국 인구정책의과제, „Social Science Research” 2018, vol. 29, no. 1, s. 219-237, https://doi.org/10.16881/jss.2018.01.29.1.219.
Google Scholar
Kim A.E., Global Migration and South Korea: Foreign Workers, Foreign Brides and the Making of a Multicultural Society, „Ethnic and Racial Studies” 2009, vol. 32, no. 1, s. 70-92, https://doi.org/10.1080/01419870802044197.
Google Scholar
Kim A.E., The Social Perils of the Korean Financial Crisis, „Journal of Contemporary Asia” 2004, vol. 34, no. 2, s. 221-237, https://doi.org/10.1080/00472330480000061.
Google Scholar
Kim E.H.W., Women’s Attitudes Toward Family Formation and Life Stage Transitions: A Longitudinal Study in Korea, „Journal of Marriage and Family” 2015, vol. 77, no. 5, s. 1074-1090, https://doi.org/10.1111/jomf.12222.
Google Scholar
Kim K., 결혼 여성의 출산율에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석, „Culture and Convergence” 2017, vol. 39, no. 6.
Google Scholar
Klumpp M., Logistik und demografischer Wandel: Arbeitsmarkt, Arbeitsbedingungen, Entwicklungsrisiken und Handlungsoptionen der Fahrberufe in Deutschland, Hamburg 2014.
Google Scholar
Kohler H.P., Billari F.C., Ortega J.A., The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s, „Population and Development Review” 2002, vol. 28, no. 4, s. 641-680, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2002.00641.x.
Google Scholar
Kołakowski L., Wieś utracona, [w:] L. Kołakowski, Czy diabeł może być zbawiony i 27 innych kazań, Kraków 2006.
Google Scholar
Kurkiewicz J., Teoria drugiego przejścia demograficznego jako koncepcja wyjaśniająca przemiany zachowań demograficznych społeczeństwa rozwiniętego, [w:] Społeczno-ekonomiczne uwarunkowania procesów ludnościowych i kształtowania się potrzeb, red. J. Kurkiewicz, B. Podolec, Kraków 2008.
Google Scholar
Lesthaeghe R., Willems P., Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?, „Population and Development Review” 1999, vol. 25, no. 2, s. 211-228, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.1999.00211.x.
Google Scholar
Lutz W., Skirbekk V., Testa M.R., The Low-Fertility Trap Hypothesis: Forces that May Lead to Further Postponement and Fewer Births in Europe, „Vienna Yearbook of Population Research” 2006, vol. 4, s. 167-192, https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2006s167.
Google Scholar
Masuda M., Comparative Analysis of Educational Cost Burden, „The Journal of Population Studies” 2019, vol. 55.
Google Scholar
Matsui N., [Management by Basic Policy] and Planning: Comprehensive Strategy and Comprehensive Plan as a Case Study, „Journal of Public Policy Studies” 2017, vol. 17.
Google Scholar
Mayumi K.T., Sustainable Energy and Economics in an Aging Population: Lessons from Japan, Cham 2020, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43225-6.
Google Scholar
McDonald P., Low Fertility and the State: The Efficacy of Policy, „Population and Development Review” 2006, vol. 32, no. 3, s. 485-510, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2006.00134.x.
Google Scholar
McDonald P., Societal Foundations for Explaining Low Fertility: Gender Equity, „Demographic Research” 2013, vol. 28, s. 981-994, https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.34.
Google Scholar
Messerschmidt R., Aussterben vertagt? Demografischer Wandel in der öffentlichen und wissenschaftlichen Diskussion, Frankfurt am Main–New York 2018.
Google Scholar
Moriizumi R., Research Trends and Prospects in the Fertility Field, „The Journal of Population Studies” 2020, vol. 56.
Google Scholar
Mydel R., Japonia w procesie przejścia od demograficznej dojrzałości do demograficznego schyłku, Kraków 2016.
Google Scholar
Nishimura T., Cross-Country Comparative Study on Achievement of Desired Number of Children: With a Focus on the Impact of Child Education Expenses, [w:] Low Fertility in Advanced Asian Economies, red. S. Matsuda, Cham 2020, s. 61-77, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0710-6_4.
Google Scholar
The Overselling of Population Ageing: Apocalyptic Demography, Intergenerational Challenges, and Social Policy, red. E.M. Gee, G.M. Gutman, Oxford 2000.
Google Scholar
Paul Ch., Jaenichen S., Steinrücken T., Demografischer Wandel in Deutschland und die Wirkungen auf Wirtschaftswachstum und öffentliche Finanzen, Ilmenau 2008.
Google Scholar
Pickton D.W., Wright S., What’s SWOT in Strategic Analysis?, „Strategic Change” 1998, vol. 7, no. 2, s. 101-109, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1697(199803/04)7:2<101::AID-JSC332>3.0.CO;2-6.
Google Scholar
Population Ageing in Central and Eastern Europe: Societal and Policy Implications, red. A. Hoff, Abingdon 2016.
Google Scholar
Pötzl A., Demografischer Wandel und Verwaltungsorganisation, München 2018.
Google Scholar
Putnam R.D., Garrett S.R., The Upswing: How We Came Together a Century Ago and How We Can Do It Again, New York 2020.
Google Scholar
Rizzo A., Kim G.J., A SWOT Analysis of the Field of Virtual Reality Rehabilitation and Therapy, „Presence” 2005, vol. 14, no. 2, s. 119-146, https://doi.org/10.1162/1054746053967094.
Google Scholar
Rockmann H., Demografischer Wandel in Japan und Deutschland: Bevölkerungspolitischer Paradigmenwechsel in der Familienpolitik, München 2011.
Google Scholar
Salzmann T., Wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen des demografischen Wandels, Wiesbaden 2010, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-92489-2.
Google Scholar
Sander B., Wohlstand sichern im demographischen Wandel: Die richtigen Aktien und Entscheidungen in Zeiten des globalen Wandels, München 2016.
Google Scholar
Schumpelick V., Demografischer Wandel und Gesundheit: Lösungsansätze und Perspektiven, Freiburg 2014.
Google Scholar
Shirahase S., Demography as Destiny: Falling Birthrates and the Allure of a Blended Society, [w:] Japan. The Precarious Future, red. F. Baldwin, A. Allison, New York 2015.
Google Scholar
Slany K., Socjo-demograficzne aspekty „syndromu opóźniania” i jego konsekwencje dla polityki społecznej, „Roczniki Socjologii Rodziny Studia” 2006, vol. 17.
Google Scholar
Suzuki T., Low Fertility and Population Aging in Japan and Eastern Asia, Cham 2013, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54780-8.
Google Scholar
Szarfenberg R., Polityka publiczna – zagadnienia i nurty teoretyczne, „Studia z Polityki Publicznej” 2016, t. 3, nr 1(9), s. 45-75, https://doi.org/10.33119/KSzPP.2016.1.1.
Google Scholar
Takegawa S., Family Strategy? Between Personal Strategy and Public Policy, „Japanese Journal of Family Sociology” 2013, vol. 25, no. 1, s. 43-51, https://doi.org/10.4234/jjoffamilysociology.25.43.
Google Scholar
Timonen V., Ageing Societies: A Comparative Introduction, New York 2008.
Google Scholar
Tkaczyński J.W., Friedrich Naumann: herold niemieckiego imperializmu czy prekursor Unii Europejskiej?, „Prace Komisji Środkowoeuropejskiej PAU” 2010, t. 18.
Google Scholar
van de Kaa D.J., Is the Second Demographic Transition a Useful Research Concept Questions and Answers, „Vienna Yearbook of Population Research” 2004, vol. 2, s. 4-10, https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2004s4.
Google Scholar
Downloads
Published
Versions
- 2022-03-11 (2)
- 2021-12-16 (1)
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
