Od Bayraktara, Szahida i Switchblade’a do programu Replicator. Zastosowanie dronów w wojnie w Ukrainie a kierunki rozwoju bezzałogowych i autonomicznych systemów bojowych

Abstract

FROM BAYRAKTAR, SHAHID AND SWITCHBLADE TO THE REPLICATOR PROGRAM: THE USE OF DRONES IN THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND THE DIRECTIONS OF DEVELOPMENT OF UNMANNED AND AUTONOMOUS COMBAT SYSTEMS

The article discusses the impact of the experiences and lessons learned from the employment of unmanned combat systems (drones) in the course of the conflict in Ukraine on international debates on use of such military equipment in contemporary armed conflicts and the direction of their future evolution, including possible introduction of combat autonomous capabilities. After clarification of key definitional issues, the article presents the level of development of drone military technologies before the war in Ukraine. Then it discusses scale and ways of using drones in this conflict, focusing on the use of combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) like TB-2 (Bayraktar) drones by Ukraine and so-called kamikaze drones (i.e. Shaheeds) and loitering munition (i.e. Switchblade) by both parties of the conflict. The aim of that analysis was to identify main trends in actual employment of unmanned technologies on contemporary battlefield and assess their combat effectiveness. These conclusions were confronted with the expectations and predictions concerning the use of drones in warfare and their development from the times before the Ukrainian war. On that basis some predictions and conclusions on future evolution of  unmanned military technologies were drawn, particularly in relations to the possibility of introducing fully autonomous weapons.