An Illusion of the Indian Balistic Missile Defence System

Authors

  • Ashfaq Ahmed National Defense University Islamabad
  • Saima Kausar University of Sargodha

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.16.2019.59.03

Keywords:

Deterrence, South Asia, BMDS

Abstract

In this paper, the Researcher has endeavored to test the hypothesis that the Indian ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) erodes the sense of mutual vulnerability. It seems that the BMDS provides a false sense of security to India. For this reason it is felt that the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) can therefore be launched against Pakistan in an attempt to actualize a disarming strike. Consequentially, the BMDS disturbs the India-Pakistan crisis and deterrence stability. Indian policymakers should realize that firstly, the operationalization of the CSD crosses Pakistan’s nuclear threshold and it requires Islamabad to unleash strategic and tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs); secondly, the Pak-India crisis and deterrence stability is functional due to the sense of mutual vulnerability; thirdly, the credibility of nuclear deterrence has not been tested and fourthly, the deterrence stability solidified the crisis and strategic stability. The BMDS deployment in South Asia will certainly result first in quantitative and qualitative nuclear proliferation; second, it weakens the NPT and; third, it may break the nuclear taboo based on non-use of nuclear weapons. India needs to understand that Pak-India can survive the long persisting threat of conventional and nuclear war because of the mutual vulnerability of counter value and counterforce targets.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

  • Ashfaq Ahmed, National Defense University Islamabad

    holds a PhD in Strategic & Nuclear Studies from the National Defense University Islamabad, Pakistan. He has contributed to the field of strategic studies through his writings published in Pakistani and international journals. He is currently serving as an Assistant Professor in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Sargodha, Pakistan.

  • Saima Kausar, University of Sargodha

    holds a M.Sc degree in Defense and Strategic Studies from Quaidi- Azam University Islamabad, Pakistan. She is a M.Phil Scholar in the Department of International Relations at Lahore Leads University in Lahore, Pakistan.

References

Ahmed A., “The Philosophy of Nuclear Proliferation/Non-Proliferation: Why States Build or Forgo Nuclear Weapons”, Trames, vol. 21, no. 4 (2017), https://www.doi.org/10.3176/tr.2017.4.05.

“Akash Surface-to-Air Missile System, India”, Army Technology, 24 May 2012, at <http://www.army-technology.com/projects/akashsurfacetoairmis/>, 12 August 2014.

Aneja A., “Defense Ministry Debating Deal with the US Over NMD”, The Hindu, 13 May 2001.

Banuri K., “Missile Defenses in South Asia: The Next Challenge”, South Asian Survey, vol. 11, no. 2 (2004), https://doi.org/10.1177/097152310401100203. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/097152310401100203

Basrur R.M., “Missile Defense: An Indian Perspective”, in M. Krepon, Ch. Gagne (eds.), Nuclear Risk Reduction in South Asia, New Delhi 2003. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781403981684_10

Behera L.K. “India’s Defence Budget 2017-18: An Analysis”, IDSA Issue Briefs, 3 February 2017, at <https://idsa.in/issuebrief/india-defence-budget-2017-18_lkbehera_030217>, 19 December 2018.

Brodie B. (ed.), The Absolute Weapon, New York 1946.

Chand T., “Emerging Trends in Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) System Development”, Centre for Joint Warfare Studies, vol. 5, no. 1 (2013).

“The Challenges and Opportunities in Developing an Indian Ballistic Missile Defence System”, RUSI Defence Systems, vol. 15, no. 3 (2013), p. 73, at <http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/RDS_2013_Patel.pdf>, 9 February 2014.

Chandrashekar S., Kumar A., Nagappa R., An Assessment of Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile Programme. Technical and Strategic Capability, Bangalore 2006.

Feickert A., “Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries”, CRS Report for Congress, 5 March 2004, at < http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/crs/31999.pdf>, 9 February 2014.

Ganguly S., “Diverging Nuclear Pathways in South Asia”, The Nonproliferation Review, vol. 20, no. 2 (2013), https://doi.org/10.1080/10736700.2013.799825. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10736700.2013.799825

Ghoshal D., “India Conducts Successful Missile Interceptor Test”, The Diplomat, 8 May 2014, at <http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/india-conducts-successful-missile-interceptor-test>, 28 July 2014.

“India Can Export Fighter Planes, Missiles: DRDO Chief ”, The Indian Express, 22 June 2014, at <http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/india-can-export-fighter-planesmissiles-drdo-chief/>, 12 August 2014.

“India to Deploy Two Ballistic Missile Defense Systems Near Pakistan Border”, Sputnik, 7 August 2017, at <https://sputniknews.com/asia/201708071056252187-india-missile-defensesystems/>, 12 November 2017.

“India Develops New Tactical Missile Pragati,” Times of India, 29 October 2013.

“Indian Ballistic Missile Defense and Its Consequences”, Defense and Security of India, at <http://defensesecurityindia.com/indian-ballistic-missile-defense-and-its-consequences/>, 30 July 2014.

Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), Release No. PR136/2015-ISPR, 11 May 2015, at <https://www.ispr.gov.pk/front/main.asp?o=t-press_release&id=2879>, 26 July 2015.

Kahn H., On Escalation. Metaphors and Scenarios, New York 2010.

Karim M.A., “Is Nuclear Deterrence Workable at the Brink Time in South Asia and Beyond?”, The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, vol. 26, no. 1 (2014).

Laskar R.H., “India is Fifth Largest Military Spender with Outlay of $ 55.9 bn: SIPRI”, Hindustan Times, 24 April 2017.

Lindstrom G., Development and Implications of Missile Defense, Geneva Centre for Security Policy 2012.

Menon N., “Defense System for India: Ballistic Missile”, Indian Defense Review, vol. 27, no. 3 (2012), at <http://www.indiandefensereview.com/spotlights/ballistic-missile-defense-system-for-india/>, 17 August 2012.

O’Donnell F., Joshi Y., “India’s Missile Defense: Is the Game Worth the Candle?”, The Diplomat, 2 August 2013, at <http://thediplomat.com/2013/08/indias-missile-defense-is-thegame-worth-the-candle/>, 17 August 2017.

“Pakistan Launches Longest-Range Nuclear-Capable Missile During Exercise”, Associated Press, 22 April 2008, at <https://www.jpost.com/International/Pakistan-launches-longest-rangenuclear-capable-missile>, 26 July 2015.

Patil P.A., “Indo-Israel Collaboration for Integrated Anti-Missile System”, In Focus, 24 February 2014, at <http://capsindia.org/files/documents/CAPS_Infocus_PP_1.pdf>, 12 August 2014.

Sultan M., “Emerging NMD Technologies and the South Asian Context”, Caspian Brief, no. 26 (2002), at <http://www.cornellcaspian.com/publications/pdf/26_0208_NMD.pdf>, 18 December 2017.

Wilkening D.A., Ballistic-Missile Defense and Strategic Stability, London 2004.

Interviews:

Cheema Zafar Iqbal, Dr. (President Strategic Vision Institute [SVI], Islamabad), in Discussion with the Author (22 November 2018).

Shafiq Ur Rehman Muhammad, Dr. (Visiting Faculty Member National Defense University Islamabad), in Discussion with the Author (22 November 2018).

Munir Muhammad, Dr. (Assistant Professor in the Dept of Strategic Studies National Defense University Islamabad), in Discussion with the Author (17 November 2018).

Zulfiqar Hussain (Director General Legal Affairs Establishment Division Islamabad), in Discussion with the Author (18 December 2017).

Downloads

Published

29-04-2019

How to Cite

“An Illusion of the Indian Balistic Missile Defence System”. 2019. Politeja 16 (2(59): 39-53. https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.16.2019.59.03.

Similar Articles

1-10 of 96

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.