An Illusion of the Indian Balistic Missile Defence System
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.16.2019.59.03Keywords:
Deterrence, South Asia, BMDSAbstract
In this paper, the Researcher has endeavored to test the hypothesis that the Indian ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) erodes the sense of mutual vulnerability. It seems that the BMDS provides a false sense of security to India. For this reason it is felt that the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) can therefore be launched against Pakistan in an attempt to actualize a disarming strike. Consequentially, the BMDS disturbs the India-Pakistan crisis and deterrence stability. Indian policymakers should realize that firstly, the operationalization of the CSD crosses Pakistan’s nuclear threshold and it requires Islamabad to unleash strategic and tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs); secondly, the Pak-India crisis and deterrence stability is functional due to the sense of mutual vulnerability; thirdly, the credibility of nuclear deterrence has not been tested and fourthly, the deterrence stability solidified the crisis and strategic stability. The BMDS deployment in South Asia will certainly result first in quantitative and qualitative nuclear proliferation; second, it weakens the NPT and; third, it may break the nuclear taboo based on non-use of nuclear weapons. India needs to understand that Pak-India can survive the long persisting threat of conventional and nuclear war because of the mutual vulnerability of counter value and counterforce targets.
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Interviews:
Cheema Zafar Iqbal, Dr. (President Strategic Vision Institute [SVI], Islamabad), in Discussion with the Author (22 November 2018).
Shafiq Ur Rehman Muhammad, Dr. (Visiting Faculty Member National Defense University Islamabad), in Discussion with the Author (22 November 2018).
Munir Muhammad, Dr. (Assistant Professor in the Dept of Strategic Studies National Defense University Islamabad), in Discussion with the Author (17 November 2018).
Zulfiqar Hussain (Director General Legal Affairs Establishment Division Islamabad), in Discussion with the Author (18 December 2017).
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