Poland's Ability to Build Blocking Coalitions after Brexit
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12797/Politeja.16.2019.63.03Keywords:
Brexit, blocking coalitions, Council of the European UnionAbstract
The article presents the results of research on the impact of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union on Poland’s ability to build small, minimalblocking coalitions in the Council of the European Union. To this end, the theory of voting games was used, but departing from the assumption that the creation of each possible coalition of players is equally likely. It was also assumedthat they do not necessarily make decisions independently of each other, and the analysis focuses on the ability to build minimally blocking coalitions. The obtained results indicate that after Brexit, for Poland to build a blocking coalition in opposition to the German-French tandem will be a very difficult task, and the loss of the United Kingdom as a potential coalition partner in the Council may be irreplaceable in some matters.
Downloads
PlumX Metrics of this article
References
Belke A., Styczynska B., The Allocation of Power in the Enlarged ECB Governing Council: An Assessment of the ECB Rotation Model, Brussels 2004.
Google Scholar
Bilbao J.M. et al., “Voting Power in the European Union Enlargement”, European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 143, no. 1 (2002), https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(01)00334-4.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(01)00334-4
Google Scholar
Brandsma G.J., “Co-Decision after Lisbon: The politics of Informal Trilogues in European Union Lawmaking”, European Union Politics, vol. 16, no. 2 (2015), https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116515584497.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116515584497
Google Scholar
Bressanelli E., Koop Ch., Reh Ch., “The Impact of Informalisation: Early Agreements and Voting Cohesion in the European Parliament”, European Union Politics, vol. 17, no. 1 (2016), https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116515608704.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116515608704
Google Scholar
Clark J., Jones A., “‘Telling Stories about Politics’: Europeanization and the EU’s Council Working Groups”, Journal of Common Market Studies, vol. 49, no. 2 (2011), https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2010.02143.x.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2010.02143.x
Google Scholar
Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union, Official Journal of the European Union, C 202, 7 June 2016.
Google Scholar
Deegan J., Packel E.W., “A New Index of Power for Simple n-Person Games”, International Journal of Game Theory, vol. 7, no. 2 (1979), p. 114, at https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01753239.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01753239
Google Scholar
Eurostat, Comparison of the results from the AWG sensitivity tests on the 2015-based population projections, Luxembourg, 15 June 2017.
Google Scholar
Eurostat, Population on 1st January by age, sex and type of projection, at <http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=proj_15npms&lang=en>.
Google Scholar
Eurostat, Usually resident population on 1 January (last update on October 2, 2017), at <http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=demo_urespop&lang=en>.
Google Scholar
Farrell H., Héritier A., The Invisible Transformation of Codecision: Problems of Democratic Legitimacy, SIEPS Report No. 7, Stockholm 2003, at <http://www.sieps.se/en/publications/2003/the-invisible-transformation-of-codecision-problems-of-democratic-legitimacy-20037/Sieps_2003_7.pdf>.
Google Scholar
Felsenthal D.S., Machover M., The Measurement of Voting Power. Theory and Practice, Problems and Paradoxes, Cheltenham 1998.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781840647761
Google Scholar
Hagemann S., De Clerck-Sachsse J., “Old Rules, New Game. Decision-Making in the Council of Ministers after the 2004 Enlargement”, Centre for European Policy Studies Special Report (2007), at <http://aei.pitt.edu/11754/1/1470.pdf>.
Google Scholar
Harsanyi J.C., Selten R., A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games, Cambridge 1988.
Google Scholar
Hayes-Renshaw F., Aken W. van, Wallace H., “When and Why the EU Council of Ministers Votes Explicitly”, Journal of Common Market Studies, vol. 44, no. 1 (2006), https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2006.00618.x.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2006.00618.x
Google Scholar
Häge F.M., “Coalition Building and Consensus in the Council of the European Union”, British Journal of Political Science, vol. 43, no. 3 (2013), https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123412000439.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123412000439
Google Scholar
Heisenberg D., “The Institution of ‘Consensus’ in The European Union: Formal Versus Informal Decision-Making in The Council”, European Journal of Political Research, vol. 44, no. 1 (2005), https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2005.00219.x.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2005.00219.x
Google Scholar
Kleinowski M., Siła państw w Unii Europejskiej. Pozaformalne wyznaczniki siły państw w Radzie UE i Radzie Europejskiej, Toruń 2014.
Google Scholar
Kleinowski M., “Konsensualne negocjacje czy głosowanie – kontestowanie aktów prawnych w Radzie UE”, Studia Europejskie, no. 4 (2012), at <https://www.ce.uw.edu.pl/pliki/pw/marcin_kleinowski.pdf>.
Google Scholar
Lewis J., “The Janus Face of Brussels. Socialization and Everyday Decision Making in the European Union”, in J.T. Checkel (ed.), International Institutions and Socialization in Europe, Cambridge 2007.
Google Scholar
Mattila M., “Voting and Coalitions in the Council after the Enlargement”, in D. Naurin, H. Wallace (eds.), Unveiling the Council of the European Union. Games Governments Play in Brussels, Basingstoke 2008.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230583788_2
Google Scholar
Mattila M., “Contested Decisions: Empirical Analysis of Voting in the European Union Council of Ministers”, European Journal of Political Research, vol. 43, no. 1 (2004), https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2004.00144.x.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2004.00144.x
Google Scholar
Moberg A., Is the Double Majority Really Double? The Second Round in the Debate of the Voting Rules in the EU Constitutional Treaty, Real Instituto Elcano Working Paper, no. 290, Madrid 2007.
Google Scholar
Neumann J. von, Morgenstern O., Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton 1944.
Google Scholar
Novak S., Qualified Majority Voting from the Single European Act to Present Day: An Unexpected Permanence, Studies and Research, 88, at <http://institutdelors.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/etud88_en-qualifiedmajority-voting-novak.pdf>.
Google Scholar
Owen G., Game Theory, 3rd ed., London 1995.
Google Scholar
Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 November 2013 on European demographic statistics, Official Journal of the European Union, L 330, 10 December 2013.
Google Scholar
Roederer-Rynning Ch., Greenwood J., “The Culture of Trilogues”, Journal of European Public Policy, vol. 22, no. 8 (2015), https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2014.992934.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2014.992934
Google Scholar
Sozański T., “The Conception of Blocking Power as a Key to the Understanding of the History of Designing Voting Systems for the EU Council”, Decyzje, no. 22 (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.32.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.32
Google Scholar
Thomson R., Resolving Controversy in the European Union. Legislative Decision-Making before and after Enlargement, Cambridge 2011.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139005357
Google Scholar
Warntjen A., “Do Votes Matter? Voting Weights and the Success Probability of Member State Requests in the Council of the European Union”, Journal of European Integration, vol. 39, no. 6 (2017), https://doi.org/10.1080/07036337.2017.1332057.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/07036337.2017.1332057
Google Scholar
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Funding data
-
Narodowym Centrum Nauki
Grant numbers SONATA 12 UMO- 2016/23/D/HS5/00408